Hello everybody. Welcome. Uh, we are live at the all-in headquarters

And the all-in podcast is now live. We have 63 people watching already

And bear with us while we get the besties on the line. I’ll be doing my introductions in just a moment after I tweet this

um

But it is an eventful night and we had to start early

because

uh

It’s looking like this could be another shocker

And I am not uh being facetious here. I am not

Happy about this obviously

But uh trump looks like he’s been underestimated again. This is not a blowout

um

We are going live early

um

This could be a shocker folks

Okay, so uh with me early on the pod is regular david friedberg

Uh david you’re watching this early action

And what’s your early uh reaction to what we’re seeing?

Um, you know

Trump’s moved

We there’s nothing definitive yet, but uh, he’s moved. Uh in the results and he’s moving markets

We’re seeing forex markets show a sharp indication

um

That trump has a real shot at winning here

treasury markets

And as phil helmuth will share with us betting markets as well

So it is more it is more of a nail-biter. Um, then game seven of the warriors calves

So here we go

Hell of a nail

There’s a hell of a nail biter guys, and i’m just going to say this. Uh, the uk markets had it first

They he was five to two, uh, you could you could get trump at five to two two and a half to one

Then it hit five to four and I thought that was quite

Crazy, you’re watching cnn. You’re watching these networks and they’re saying oh my god. Biden’s winning this

No, they’re not even in the right neighborhood. I’ll never watch a network again on election night and now

the market from five minutes ago

368 million pounds

wagered 368 million pounds

Trump is now a three to ten

Favorite okay. So for people, uh phil who are not gamblers if you bet three dollars you bet three dollars

No, no jason you have to understand if you bet 13

Okay, you don’t get 13 back. You only get uh 10 back

Okay. Now if you want to bet biden, it’s seven to four. So if I bet 70

Uh, if I bet 40 I can get 70

Back on biden now the shocker is right around 6 28 p.m

uh

The betting odds the markets have been in biden’s favor for three straight months

I’ve been live posting them on my twitter all day

The worst I saw was uh was trump was uh was biden was minus a dollar 25 still a big favorite to win and then boom

And uh, you know, there are people in my house that are actually crying

Uh, you know, i’m very more much more in the middle of this thing

But all of a sudden, uh trump

All of a sudden it was five to four then it was even and then all of a sudden trump was nearly a two-to-one favorite

I’m getting live information from my friends right now

um i’m seeing that uh

That it’s uh, it’s a little bit lower on some of these sites

Um, I saw 267 that’s for a 200 dollar bet. So he’s a pretty big favorite

Um, I saw the lowest i’ve seen is 217

But jason if you’re watching the odds and I put some stuff on my twitter, it’s amazing how it went from you know

minus a dollar 70

You know all the way down minus a 30 then it came all the way up to minus a dollar 70

This is crazy and and i’ve seen this movie before in 2016 actually

Okay, so we all know that you need 270 electoral votes to win

And that there were a couple of states that were critical

for trump to win

And it seems like those states that trump was critical to win

He has now won so let’s bring in david sacks

Uh david, we just turned on the live stream

And boy, is this a turn of events that I don’t think any of us except for maybe you

But you were very pessimistic on the last maybe three or four

All in podcasts you’re watching these results come in the betting markets have totally flipped to trump

What are you seeing and what can we expect tonight? What are you looking for?

Yeah, I mean it’s looking just like

2016. Um, I mean you’re right that

I was looking at the polls in the last few pods that we’ve done

and there was no way to say anything other than you know, trump was the

uh was the underdog, um, but at the same time, I I still thought that

Um trump had a really good shot because I was watching

Both candidates, you know on youtube all the time. They both were doing live events. I wasn’t watching it with the commentary

I wasn’t watching the clips. I was watching trump do these rallies. I was watching

Biden do these parking lot events

And I would see trump do four five events a day flying from

Um tarmac to tarmac on air force one having these huge crowds. I saw him do this event in

Butler pennsylvania over the weekend. It looked to me like there was tens of thousands of people there

um, and I remember trump saying a line like, you know, this doesn’t seem like a second place crowd and

You know, it’s one of those trump lines, but you know, it did put in my mind this idea, you know, he’s got a point

Um, whatever the polls say we’re seeing tens of thousands of people show up at these events who are fanatical

I mean just fanatical

For trump and so you always had to think that he had a chance of pulling off an upset

Just like 2016. I will say what I said on our text earlier

donald trump

Ate the covid virus and killed it with his body

And then he stood in front of the white house and ripped his shirt off and let us all know that he is our leader

He did not get elected. He claimed victory

Beginning in 2016 and he has not and will not let go

Since then and I think it is that

um cult of personality

that um

Draws so many people in that are just um

You know feeling like they need change and they need leadership and they don’t need something from the old school and

He uh, he stood up and he showed us that this whole thing is a fake. Covid is a fake

Government is fake. The people are fake. The media is fake

He’s the only guy late numbers. I’m getting some late numbers here you guys

Um, he’s now a minus a dollar 59 to win pennsylvania and they took every other number off the board

however, if you’re a biden person jason, uh, the number is only

2.17 right now

um, so, uh

But wow, the polls are pollsters were miles off on this

And this is just amazing

And it seems like from what we’re hearing from the reporting is that the pollsters did not understand

Uh the latin or I guess latinx is a way to describe

um a group of people who actually don’t think exactly the same i’ve always had a

A weird, um understanding of this term latinx, which seems to come from the woke left

but cubans

puerto ricans

Mexicans, these are different countries. They’re not all the same as waylands

Venezuelans, this is not a monoculture

Just because they all speak the same language and we’re seeing something very different happen in florida right now. We’re male

Uh cubans maybe are voting very differently than what pollsters expected

Uh bestie chamath is now fresh off a tight haircut and he’s here on the pod. Can you hear me?

Uh, we’ve got bestie phil as our first bestie guestie of the night bestie p. How are you bestie p?

Chamath you and I we shouldn’t talk about this

This is about politics, but you and I were just filming high stakes poker in las vegas on friday night

It was great to see you bestie

Is there any indication you can give us besides?

I mean, of course, there’s a presidential election that is going to determine the future of humanity

But more importantly, how did you each do in the high stakes poker game?

the biggest the biggest the biggest part of the night was

around

400k, maybe 500k played between me and dur

Yeah, and he won

He did not win the hint. Oh my lord. Chamath won that one go

Oh my lord

And uh, it was I think it was beautifully beautifully played. I think

Doug polk will definitely do a short video clip on it. Uh, I did a

I did a very uh, very sneaky

three bet pre-flop turn check

um

River over bluff and got him to call

Oh my lord

A little set bomb i’m guessing but here we go. Uh, jason. I can’t wait

Uh since i’m here to promote promote promote everything I promote, uh

You can only watch these episodes of high stakes poker a lot of players favorite show

You can only watch them on the poker go app. They’re coming out. December 16th. Meet chamath phil ivy tom duan

Ben lamb a lot of your a lot of your heroes take it away. Oh, well, can’t wait. Can’t wait to uh,

And I have a subscription to that all in. Um, i’m sorry the poker go app. It’s it’s well worth it

Uh david sacks you have one of your i’m recording

Friends on the pod. Why don’t you introduce?

Uh, one of your consulting friends and and uh, we’ll have him t up

What we think the possible scenarios are and where we’re at right now at this very moment

It is

657 in california. Yeah, so michael newman works for me as a researcher and um

he’s uh

As a political scientist, I guess you could say and i’ve known him since college and he’s very uh,

Steeped in these, uh, a lot of these races. I don’t know if he’s

Yeah, I have been obsessively following politics since uh, the reagan election of 1980

so

I I I I wasn’t alive then so

No, i’m afraid i’m, uh, I I was only 10, but I was already

Uh a political obsessive and as you can imagine a real hit with the ladies as well

so

tell us what

What are the key states we need to focus in on here and which one of them?

uh have enough reporting for us to

Sort of put them in a column and then move on and understand the path to victory for trump

Or biden. Yes. Well, I mean, uh

Depending upon which network or news organization you’re following

They’re either calling calling a lot of states or they’re being very conservative about their calls

I mean nbc has still not called florida for trump

But there’s really no path for biden to win that state

Uh, so you can put that safely in the trump column

He has just taken the lead in north carolina after trailing all night

We’ve got about 88 of the vote in now

And I suspect he’s home free as is the republican incumbent senator there

Can I can I just can I just ask a question? I mean, isn’t it typically the case that the

counts from the most populous

Urban areas come last and those tend to skew more democrat than republican

That sometimes happens. Uh, it depends on the state. Um

Some states have their rural areas come in last

one of the things that has changed the vote in north carolina is as the early vote came in as the

Uh in-person early vote and mail-in ballots came in the last counties that reported that early vote were the rural counties

That’s why early on it looked very good for biden and now it looks

Like, uh, it’s trending away from him. Well, wait a second north carolina according to the new york times and according to

um cnn right now is favoring

Slightly biden 49.7 to 49.1 for trump with 84

I don’t think that’s I don’t think that’s quite current. I think they’re up to about 88

88 but again, yeah, it’s it’s very close. What’s interesting is

Uh biden had five potential states where he could have knocked trump out

florida, georgia, north carolina, ohio, and texas

We are off the table

We don’t yeah florida’s off the table. The others are still on the table

But none of them are trending biden’s direction at the present time

so he uh

Yeah, so far trump is uh

Is staying in the hand is uh as you poker players would would say he’s uh, he’s

Uh, he’s getting the cards. He needs to stay in the to stay in the game

Uh, but we still have the river to play and the river would be in this case, michigan wisconsin pennsylvania

texas

Had an early lead for biden, which was crazy to see

Right now it’s got donald trump at 50.3

Biden at 48.3 guys again. So that’s starting to normalize

I I go back to this one very critical thing

the reason why michigan wisconsin and pennsylvania right now are trump is because you count the

The when the county is counted you can pass the votes and you can report and if you have 25 000 people in a county

versus allegheny county, which has like

I don’t know hundreds of thousands or a million plus people. It just takes longer

Yes. No, I listen. I don’t characterize michigan wisconsin pennsylvania at all

I think one of the reasons why michigan right now looks so red is because

they’re counting

today’s vote first a lot of these other states that like florida that had the

Option because their legislature allows them to do this. They counted all that early vote in advance and they dumped it in one big pile

Uh as soon as the polls closed in the in the various counties

So that’s why you saw early on a blue mirage there

What you’re seeing in a place like michigan right now is probably a red mirage

Because it’s it’s today’s vote which was going to skew trump

uh

Because of the because of the way he presented it to his people. He uh, florida was the one state

uh, thank goodness for his uh sake that he

Encouraged people to vote early and by mail in the other states. He encouraged his people to vote today

So here’s a here’s a stat in pennsylvania. I’m on the um

Secretary of state’s reporting dashboard. They’ve counted only 12 percent of the mail-in ballots

Um, which is and the total mail-in ballots is 2.5 million

Yeah, um, which is huge right and they’ve only it should be a majority of the vote. I would imagine. Yeah. Yeah

And they’ve only and they’ve only counted

24 actually, sorry. They’ve only

Yeah, they’ve only counted a handful of precincts at this point

uh

a quarter of the precincts

Right. So here’s something I don’t understand. So, uh, nick, uh carlson from uh, was it like business insider?

He just tweeted

um

minutes ago

that

North carolina biden is ahead with 99 of the vote counted and biden has a less than 0.2 percent lead

But it’s 9 000 votes. Well that I mean that’s

That would be a huge problem for trump

He lost north carolina. I listen I think a loss in any of those five states, florida, georgia, north carolina

Ohio or texas is probably shout out by the way guys

I just want to give a shout out to nothing who’s listening here all the way from sri lanka. He’s listening. He just texted me

Okay as much by the way guys

Right now the odds are three to one on the betting market

So I mean obviously the networks I realized are completely useless

I stopped watching him a long time ago when they had biden way ahead in florida

And the odds were 10 to 1 against right now

If you want to bet trump is a three to one favorite on and there’s been billions of dollars spent in england australia

All over the world. He’s a three to one favorite. It looks like it’s real to me

And just to and just to just to build your side of the case

Uh nasdaq futures ripping s&p futures falling and the 10 and 30 year falling remember ripping

These are all pro trump trades and and the euro the euro collapse the euro dollar falling uh falling sharply

Once the markets turn towards trump. Well, here’s what they’re reacting to is wisconsin michigan and pennsylvania

Trump is all up big time

Now again, this this that lacks a very basic understanding of how county reporting is happening in these highly populous, you know

or these sort of sorry these these uh

bimodally distributed states where they have a bunch of suburban and rural vote that’s fast to count and

The big places for example, like, you know, you’re not going to see milwaukee and green bay report until probably close to midnight

So you have another two hours. So the question is why why are the betting markets so pro trump then?

What do they know that we don’t know?

I will say this. Let me say this jason

I mean if you’re like there you’re talking about billions of dollars, right?

And so all you had to do was design a system

To figure out how to calculate votes earlier and make a couple hundred million dollars

Okay, these are the smartest people in the world. There’s hundreds of millions of dollars billions of dollars at stake

They obviously do it 10 times better than any other site than any other network

So this information, I mean I give a friend of mine posted. Hey, i’m laying two to one on uh on twitter guys

I’m buying my other friend bet four hundred thousand dollars to eight hundred thousand dollars trump and now he looks like a genius

Somebody knows something that we don’t know

Well trump just on bovada trump just moved to minus 600

Yeah, he just took michigan on

Unbelievable minus it looks like he’s uh, it looks like he’s ahead in michigan

But again, we have to see detroit and there’s there’s a bunch of places in michigan. Let’s

Let’s let’s look at the north. So here’s the north carolina secretary of state dashboard

And they’re showing uh, two-thirds of the counties and you can actually see by county when you go onto their their dashboard

The um

You know jamaat the larger counties are partially reported. Most of the smaller counties are fully reported

um

63 total

with um

You know biden ahead by literally a thousand votes right now across 2.5 to 2 million to 2.5 to 1 million. Wow

What percent

Reported is that I mean, it’s 63

Of the counties have completely reported

And so the remaining counties if you look at the reporting status the remaining counties that are partially reported

There’s a mix of rural and some of the urban counties, you know durham’s in there partially reported

Uh, so there is a mix. It’s not durham should be a biden county. The research triangle is uh upscale

well-educated professionals

That I think are the the backbone of the democrats

uh coalition in a state like north carolina

Now they have um absentee votes that are counted

And they have so far counted

3.3 million

Absentee one-stop votes

And a million votes by mail, but that’s how many came in. It actually shows that only

Five oh, I see. Yeah. Okay. That makes sense. Trump trump is now ahead in ohio

Two-thirds of the votes were post the link into the zoom chat. So nick can pull it up on the screen, please

um

I need to get an understanding of something very basic here for the audience who’s not degenerate gamblers

Are is there a chance here phil and chamath gambling experts both?

That people had put early money on biden

And are now covering or hedging some of those bets. Is that a possibility here? Yes

Okay, jason. Jason. The line is minus a dollar minus four ten on pinnacle right now

Let me just double check that source. So what what phil is saying? Jason is like yes, there’s going to be a bunch of

Essentially covering now that covering will swing the line

But I think what phil is also saying is when a line moves this violently literally what we’ve seen in the last 35 minutes

Is both the equity markets the currency markets and the betting markets flip?

180 degrees from where they have been not just all day

But frankly where they had been probably for the last few months

That’s what I was saying chamath for three months straight

Uh right now biden has been a favorite anywhere between three to one favorite at one point

All the way to maybe you know 50 percent favorite and all of a sudden today

The lowest I saw was a dollar 35 and I was kind of shocked and the next thing, you know, boom

Trump’s a three to four to one favorite

So and and i’m looking at cnn and i’m looking at these networks and they’re still they still have biden ahead and i’m like wow

What is going on? They’re way behind. That’s that’s the next thing. We need to take care of chamath

There’s a business for you is somehow we can deliver the right data on elections quickly. There you go

yeah, well, I think the betting markets know something we don’t know because

um

Trump is just you know, if you look at like the live stream on twitter or the new york times or something

Trump just slightly took the lead in

Ohio

But that’s the state he’s supposed to win in north carolina

It looks like with over 99 reporting it looks like he lost by 9 000 votes

By the way, a 9 000 vote margin would probably trigger an automatic recount of north carolina

And there’s like a hundred thousand absentee ballots there, I don’t know if those have been counted yet

Okay, so i’m gonna let’s pause for one second on this everybody north carolina is one of the four or five states

Trump has to win

In order to have a victory right michael. I I absolutely agree with that

He had to have those five florida north carolina, georgia, ohio and texas. Okay, so we have florida

He’s got now there’s four left. There’s four left. Georgia’s a very slow counting state

We really don’t know all of atlanta could be out for all we know

But so we leave georgia on the side. So now we got four states we can work with north carolina

is in

Biden’s pocket by just a hair

Yeah, that could change and it would trigger a recount which would take days to weeks

Yes, the other three states. Let’s go through them systematically one by one michael. Okay, uh, ohio

Uh was the biggest surprise of the night when biden built an early lead there? Although again

a bit of a blue mirage based upon

Uh the fact that the mail-in vote and the early vote came in so strong for the democrats this year

Uh, because they emphasized it and the republicans kind of fought against it

Uh, but michael michael with 49 of the vote in ohio

Okay, he had a right now biden had a massive lead and he had about a 400 000 vote lead without the correct

And when you look at the betting odds, he was five to one underdog to win the state

So something doesn’t add up there and you can you can say all right

Some of that is all the early voting went for biden. We know that to be a fact, but there’s something else there

okay, i’m just looking at the

Uh results for ohio. We’ll stay on ohio for one more moment

And then we have another guest who just jumped on ohio

Is currently showing donald trump with two point

Rounding it up 2.4 million votes to 2.2 million slightly rounding up for joe biden

52 percent to 47

With 78 percent reporting does that mean we feel comfortable with?

trump

uh winning

Ohio unless all of cleveland is outstanding. I would say that’s a trump state. Yeah

Okay, we now have john cohen on the line. John is

a uh

Member of the survey monkey team john. Welcome to the all-in pod. Can you hear us?

Thank you so much. I i’m sorry. I didn’t hear what was going on. I don’t I don’t know how much you’ve been disparaging pollsters so far

Um, so let me know. Well, we were waiting for you. We’re waiting to get here

Tell us as we start what your prediction was earlier today

Well, we’re very clear to say that we’re doing measurements not predictions

Okay, that said the measurements that we are doing clearly pointed to biden advantages across the board

But we didn’t have we so far we have no surprises, you know, we had florida

Had been trump plus two basically all week going to dead even

Um, you know coming into election day itself. We don’t know where the final votes will be

Most analysts think that it’s in trump’s camp. It may end up there, but it’s super close. We had georgia close

We had north carolina close although and north carolina had been closing. It had been a big biden lead

It was down to under two points

Um with the senate, you know kind of even closer than that in some of our data

So, you know so far there’s no obvious surprise. You’re like damn the polls were really wrong. Certainly ours

You know, it’s our it’s early though. We’re not declaring victory on those

Obviously, there’s a lot to watch but nothing really to surprise. Um, you know us given the numbers so far

What about ohio and georgia?

So we had ohio pretty consistently in trump’s camp. We had him up four. So it’s trending that way now

We had it as close as two points for trump. I mean again, I haven’t mentioned the word margin of error

That’s in my professional

Obligation and duty to mention it. It’s around three points. I believe two and a half in ohio

So close, but we always had it in trump’s camp again biden

That wasn’t part of biden’s, you know, any of the past victory that the campaign was counting on so

You know no big deal, but we went from having a early night to now

We’re we’re sure for sure and for a really late night here

John, um, let me ask you the one of the most basic questions that i’ve had which is

What did we learn from 2016 and tell me what exactly did people try to fix? Like what was the thing that?

Everybody got wrong

And what changed?

Well, the biggest thing that polls fixed was how they adjust their polls by education

What we see in polling no matter how they’re conducted whether online as we do at survey monkey

Or still on the telephone which most media pollsters do

Is you get people with more formal education to answer those surveys in far greater proportions than you do people with lower education

So the biggest thing you’ve got to do and look we always did it

So we weren’t in the among the state pollsters who kind of failed I think, um, you know kind of

negligently to

Adjust by education at all. We always adjust by education

But we’ve what we failed to notice in 2016

Was there was an increasing gap between those with postgraduate degrees and those with bas?

They’ve always been both to pro-democratic group, but the gap in 2016 was abnormally large

a fix to our polls

which I just point out weren’t you know kind of were actually standouts in the in the upper midwest in terms of

Showing it as a close race not clear of clinton victories

We broke apart postgrads and grads into two distinct categories and that released kind of about a point and a half of unforced error

In our polling for 2016, so that’s fixed. We’ve used it to good effect again this time around

We weren’t showing what all the other national polls were showing we’ve had this between a four and six point national lead again

We’ll get quickly into why national results don’t matter, but you all know that all too

Well, everyone knows that all too well

But we’ve had it kind of more narrow and that plays out in the states that I mentioned

We had florida tied not a four point biden five point biden

Advantage elsewhere, you know, but we’ll see how it plays out in the midwest. We also had wisconsin

What was our final margin there?

I think it was, you know kind of nine and nine and a half points

Not the 17 points that you saw from my former colleagues at the washington post and abc news

So we’ve always had it a little bit tighter

But again, it plays how it’s going to play out in these states and so far no surprises

But the night is early and i’m I have a healthy dose of pollsters paranoia jamal

I don’t know if that answered your question well enough, but that was the main thing people did

It’s really helpful. But now take off your pollster measure, you know, chief research officer hat for a second

And put on just the american hat. Um

What does it mean?

When you know, we had effectively a repudiation of the establishment in 2016

And despite everything that’s happened over the last four years

We may be on the brink of another repudiation again if you

You know where you’re there to measure the pulse of what’s going on

but less in

Sort of measurement speak and just more in just plain american english speak john

What like what’s going on if this happens again?

So you’re absolutely right there’s something major I would also like to caveat it

We are looking once again at if trump wins it’s because of the electoral college

Like he is going to lose the popular vote

There’s still far more americans and american voters who voted today and you know kind of over the past several weeks

Who would prefer joe biden to be president?

So again, we can’t characterize with a broad brush the american voting population when this is about effectively

I hate to call it a quirk, but this is about our system of vote tallying and the president

You know that to pull back your point about kind of there is something major here the fact that many people, you know

Some of us might be friends with can’t understand why this is an 100 to 0 race fail to understand that the president’s base isn’t

Small it is, you know, we’ve had it 44 to 46

Approving of his job performance for many years now like he has a completely durable solid floor

He also has a high ceiling, right?

So he was never going to win the popular vote this time around but he had a chance at that electoral

You know squeaking out another electoral college win because he’s been so stable, you know, this is a president who?

You know kind of up trump now had an nc. Thank you for uh the chat window

So I think you’re right that we need to understand more about what is the componentry of that 45?

That they would support trump when the other 55 are so dead set against him and see it as something really wrong with the country

So we still what I mean

No, I what have you guys done to though understand?

The people that are voting for trump better because I think that they are

protesting

And they’re protesting a lot

And I think that you know, if we didn’t listen to him in 16, I think it’s almost

Criminal to not listen to them in 2020

so

What are they what are they saying?

What are they rejecting or what is it that they want because at the end of the day, you know

I think his incompetence can’t really be debated competence versus incompetence

I think what we can debate is he’s a vessel and in that I think that it’s incredibly important

What’s happening irrespective of what happens today because we were supposed to walk into a landslide

We’re not as you said, we’re going to be in a nail biter

What is what are what are they using him as a vessel to communicate to everybody else?

That’s a really good question. I mean some of

That will depend on you know

A closer analysis of the surveys ours where we talk to more than a million voters and the exit polls

That are being conducted by two separate organizations today

But what’s the what are the storylines that come out of the election?

You know, one of the things that’s being reported early is there’s a much tighter hispanic vote in florida than many early polls

You know predicted how will that play out as we start to get votes, you know coming out in texas

How does it be in arizona? See arizona looking positively for?

Biden and mark kelly in the senate, you know in arizona

You know kind of is it is it really hispanic votes that are driving some trump strength in these states?

Or you kind of is it the obsession that the news media has had for the past four years around the kind of trump middle-aged

white male voter with less than college education who has been displaced by

You know technological and industrial trends over the past 20 years

I think it’s going to depend on what that voting coalition looks like for trump and it’s more diverse than I think we’ve been

Focusing on for four years. I think you’re saying an incredibly important thing

I think that that was a ruse and i’ve always thought that that was bullshit. It’s not some

Under-educated rube that’s running around voting for this guy

um, I think that there are there are people up and down the

The age spectrum the socio-economic spectrum

And this is what I mean by he has become a vessel for so many different messages

and

I think we really have to start figuring out what the hell these messages actually mean because

If biden loses to your point, maybe in florida, it’s a repudiation of socialism

Okay, but in pennsylvania, it’s going to be something else in michigan. It’s going to be something else in ohio

It’s going to be something else

For him to keep winning, right?

um, and and I just don’t think that there’s a consistent idea and it’s very dismissive to say that i’m not saying you are

But i’m saying, you know that idea that it was

An out-of-work ex-factory worker, you know in rural. Ohio that was protesting

This is going to be much bigger than that because even if biden wins the popular vote

Until we figure out how to rebalance balance the electoral college in a completely, you know

New way or just get rid of it altogether

Um, we’re going to have to live with understanding

How some folks in these extremely pivotal states?

Um are pushing back are they pushing back on political correctness?

You know, that’s one thing that i’ve always thought I think that there’s a huge vote here

against um

Cancel culture, so all of that stuff. Absolutely. Absolutely

And and lockdowns, I think those are the underreported

Lockdowns are the I think the biggest one of the biggest drivers

No, go ahead. John. Go ahead. John

No, I was gonna say one of the components here that we have to pay a lot of attention is gender

Right kind of, you know the storyline for a long time

And when you think about you know

Kind of republican democratic politics is that you know, we talk about black voters and hispanic voters talking about them as if they’re monoliths

What we have seen consistently over the course of the year is that trump does

Much better among black men and hispanic men than he does among black women and latinas and that is just kind of like

You know, whereas black women are 95 5, you know, he nears 20 among black men. It blends into the what we’ve the 90

Look, but I look these are measurements. These are measurements. I don’t think they’re telling you the whys of anything and

Um, I think for the whys you have to go a lot deeper

I mean, first of all, let’s let’s talk about the lockdown issue. Can we just pull up that?

Tweet nick. I mean, so this is what I said back in may. This was like months ago before the election even hit

You know, which is if the woke left insists on permanent lockdowns trump will have an issue that supersedes

The incompetence of covid response because I think you know

We all we all agree on that which is whether our lives and livelihoods belong to politicians to meet or out

In dribs and drabs as they see fit and this was back when elon was being shut out of his factory in fremont

And then there was this hairdresser named shelly luther in texas

who was basically

Put on trial for opening up her hair salon

And the the judge wanted her to to grovel and beg for forgiveness

And this was the beginning of the rebellion over lockdowns and it was so obvious back then

That lockdowns weren’t going to fly. They weren’t sustainable. They were too politically unpopular

um, they weren’t going to work and and by the way, if it was something a cause that the left agreed with like

You know a blm rally or something like that. Then you were allowed to do it. You know, it was that whole standard around

You know doing things that were essential

and so, you know this insistence on lockdowns even after the public had really

Repudiated them I think was a major issue for for trump

And it was crazy to me that biden was still insisting on lockdowns

you know

Still I mean that is his official position

Um, I don’t think it’s the only reason why he’s in trouble right now, but I think it’s a big one

I think if he if trump reaches the blue wall again of michigan wisconsin pennsylvania

Lockdowns is the biggest reason why because those are three states that had extensive and still have

Uh extensive lockdowns it hurts it hurts people i’ll here i’ll read you a tweet

And I won’t name who it’s from it’s from a farmer

in um in the corn belt who’s well followed on twitter believe it or not, there’s a whole

Ag twitter community and he says well, it’s the day does this country turn down the road to be like venezuela?

Or do we continue on the road of capitalism?

and um, he’s had this acute, um feeling that he’s kind of

Uh vocalized on twitter for for months now

On how painful the lockdowns have been on him and his family and his business and on the community

And uh, it just feels like overreach to a lot of people

that the recognition that um

You know

The left might be using to justify the decision is just not there that the the impact the near-term impact that folks are feeling is

What’s there and that’s driving a lot of behavior right now boys all markets are now up

Everything is green dow futures s&p 500 futures

Oil is up gold is down

And come on

There were some guys that made some heavy bets against the dollar going into this thinking we were going to have massive inflation

With biden policy coming up and um some big fund managers

That went really big on on shorting the dollar this last week

Um, and the dollar is up right now. Yeah the dollar by the way

We should we should make sure at some point tonight to talk about these very important senate races because

it’s not just trump versus biden that there’s also a bunch of

Hickenlooper one in colorado and louber one in colorado

But there have been some you know, some of the republicans who look to be in big trouble like lindsey graham

have uh have pulled it out and have won and um

So it’s looking like the senate is still very much in play. I would say as big a favorite

As biden was the senate

Shifting, uh from republican to democrat. I’d say that was considered as equally big a favorite

And that that may not happen now, so we should make sure to talk about that at some point north carolina right now is 49.8

to 49 for biden

2.6 million versus 2.58

Ohio is at 2.4

to 2.251

52 percent to 47 trump is beating biden. I um, I have a question for john cohen john

um, let’s go back to

Um, sort of your understanding as you’ve been measuring different trends. Have you

measured

um people’s

Sympathy towards lockdowns on a state by state level and then second question is have you measured people’s

Sympathy to cancel culture at a state by state level and by the way, you’re on mute

So if you want to just take yourself off, yeah, thank you. We have not done anything on cancel culture

We’ve done a lot on the coronavirus. We’ve been tracking that actually in three countries since mid-february

And we have a state by state look and what’s interesting is we ask the question like this is primarily an economic issue

Or a primary health issue and those two have been running neck and neck

But the health you kind of more people on average say it’s a health issue than an economic one

Trump with trump supporters overwhelmingly say the crisis is one that’s financial not health related

So there’s always been that but it’s been like a 45 55 gap there

So we’ve been measuring it state by state, but there’s a solid core of people and it gets to david’s point about why?

What are they focused on? What is the what is affecting them and their you know pocketbooks?

It is the you know lockdowns and the kind of clamping down and what is this economic crisis?

Not a health care one, even though that’s what we all say that they should follow

I mean there was a there was a there was a fantastic line that the democrats coined which essentially said something to the tune

Saksipu you’ll tell me if I get this wrong, but it was

Socialism for the rich and rugged individualism for the for the rest of us is essentially sort of their grab bag

phrase for um

For this election cycle and sort of to frame a lot of policies

But when you have in these states again, if we say this cuts along socioeconomic lines, but then maybe bleeds into

um

college and even you know

uh graduate level educated folks

Is there a vote here for um rugged individualism and just leave me the fuck alone?

There certainly could be I want to go back to what david said about measuring versus the why

Because I mentioned gender to point out a big difference that we’re seeing across racial groups across the levels of education

But i’m, you know, we’re polling every day. So you guys have the right why question, you know, send it to me, you know

Send to xander. We’ll we’ll ask it, you know, we polled 9 000 people today

On you know kind of their willingness to accept the results and so we’ll be putting that out

You know tomorrow we have a we’ll have an exit poll running, uh every day from here on

To certainly until we get a result. So you have the question you want to ask send along

We’ll we’ll get you the data at the state level

All right, john. We very much appreciate you coming on the pod and we will be checking survey monkey’s amazing data as we go

I’m going to switch now and just john. John. John. Thank you and xander. Thanks for doing for hooking that up. Thanks, john

Thanks guys, and we’ll have some more bestie guesties coming up some fan favorites from the twitter and the poker group

I just want to point out right now that it’s very interesting to see that fox

has

biden at 129 electoral votes and trump at 109

and um

Some of the other networks have it much lower. How do the networks make these decisions?

of when to call

A state because it’s too early according to many to call florida, but we’re sitting here with a pretty clear

Understanding of where florida’s at does anybody have any thoughts on that of well?

I think they’re erring on the side of extreme caution because of the strange

Year that it is and the fact that there is all this

We had a hundred over a hundred million votes banked early through the mail or through early in-person voting

and

Nobody sure how many more mail ballots there according to one side

I looked at there were still 27 million ballots outstanding now

Some of those are redundant ballots like david’s father-in-law who got three ballots in the mail

in pennsylvania

And a lot of those are probably going in the trash

But there could be another five to ten million of those to come in

That are postmarked by today many states will accept them after the election as long as they’re postmarked by election day

So they’re probably being very very careful

That they don’t make a premature call

Of course, they all have ptsd about what happened in 2000 when they first prematurely called florida for al gore

Then prematurely called it for george w bush and we spent the next 37 days trying to figure out what the hell happened in florida

So, uh, I think they’re going to err on the side of extreme caution across the board

Although, uh, I feel like the margin in florida at this point is

It feels insurmountable now, right? That’s

Florida’s over. It’s about now. It’s about

It’s about ohio, by the way, the betting markets have just moved again big time

So donald trump was at minus 600 now. He’s minus 250 on bovado phil. What do you think about that?

Yeah snapping back. I will say let me let me address what jake jason was talking about a few seconds ago

And that’s it, you know, basically florida even the new york times had them at at 6 p.m

95

To go to trump at 95. That was a new york times site

My wife and I looked it up and the betting odds had him at over 10 to 1. This was at 5 30

This was two hours ago

so

I mean, I just think there’s a huge inefficiency with with the way that I think it was over as soon as the miami day

Dump showed that biden only won the early vote by nine points. I mean the hillary won it by 29

In 2016 and she lost the state. So

How much of this do we think has to do with tax policy?

People in florida are retiring

We have the aoc gang

We have come on jason. Elizabeth warren florida. It’s his beloved state. He has

A place. Okay. So so hometown favorite mar-a-lago. I get that

but you have so many retirees and

We we have this bifurcation of how taxes should work in the united states

So I just want to open that up for the entire group to discuss

Of art are we seeing old people? Are we seeing people who are concerned about taxes?

Because we have had a flight

In the last couple of years of people from high tax states to low tax states. Is this about taxes? Do you think?

Let’s start with you freedberg. No one wants to pay taxes the fuck

Like no one’s gonna raise their hand

But I mean there’s a moment where taxes don’t matter

well, but

Romney romney was in favor of taxes and he

You know, he didn’t win

any any of these elections like the way that that trump looks like he’s going to I think that

The the traditional republican messages message of taxes is sort of necessary but not sufficient

um trump obviously

brought a whole set of issues that previous republicans hadn’t

um hadn’t brought and I think that

You I think you have to look at 2016 separately from 2020

And so starting with 2016, I think the big issue that trump

That no republican really had ever figured out except maybe pat buchanan 20 years ago was the trade issue with china

you know, we forget that

In the 1970s

when the great

Chinese economic reformer deng xiaoping decided to open up the chinese economy. The average chinese was making two dollars a day

And today their economy is roughly the size of the u.s. Now

You know, what was the reason for that?

Well, we had a bipartisan consensus in this country for 30 or 40 years on the part of both clinton’s and both bushes

That we should you know open them. We should welcome them with open arms and we opened up our market to chinese products

We brought them into the world trade organization

But but that was the start that was the start of that was the the killer app or the killer issue

That trump figured out and that’s what shattered the blue

Firewall in those rust belt states. I mean if you’re going to try and figure out going back to 2016

Why trump won you have to explain why he won michigan?

You’re saying our jobs they took our jobs

But what i’m saying is the manufacturing jobs went out and the fentanyl came in. I mean, that’s his argument

And um, that was a killer argument. I mean and the proof is in the pudding

It’s the proof is that he won these states that hillary thought were so in the bag that she didn’t even bother to campaign there

Uh, that was the big surprise

At 2020 and the issue of taxes. Well, no, no, no

No, let me let me explain what’s going on in 2020 in my opinion

Okay, this is not a partisan explanation, but I think that after the loss in 2016

look

In business, we know that when you lose when you make a mistake

You make a bad investment or the company does something wrong you analyze what you did wrong, right?

And then you figure out what changes to make the democrat party did not do that. What did they do?

They blamed facebook. They blamed it on russian interference. They never really analyzed why they lost these rust belt states and made

Changes instead what they began was this hysterical?

denunciation of trump

um, you had this sort of um

You know, you sort of had this this sort of um

You know media culture

uh tech

uh industrial complex who decided that trump was a an illegitimate president and

You know, and so what they did is they went all in on impeachment

They went all in on this russia stuff and in the process they created this enormous backlash

And I think that 2020 if 2016 was an economic repudiation

Of the elites

2020 is a cultural repudiation of the elites. That is the big issue in 2020

yeah, I uh, I tend to I tend to

I’m sympathetic to david’s view. I don’t completely agree with all of it. But um

Just to build on something you said I don’t think jason this has anything to do with taxes

um, I think that in florida

The if we if we end up really getting to the bottom of what happened

I think there’s a lot of people

um

Older people that probably lived through some version of mccarthyism

And immigrants who actually fled really shitty totalitarian countries who were like you want to do what?

here

um, and I think that there was a lot of people that basically

Are giving a very clear signal which is i’m a democrat

But if you push me to the brink and talk about a socialized nanny state i’m gonna vote republican

So to david’s point I totally agree to david’s point if there was an economic repudiation of sort of

traditional globalism

in 2016

and donald trump ends up carrying the day in today, then it’s a repudiation of

sort of these cultural manifestos and norms that

were swinging to now

the the answer to that may be to say

Change the electoral college because it doesn’t represent the majority or the plurality of americans

I hear that

but in the same way that you know

we’ve said for years now that the republicans will have to change to win the electoral college or to change to win

what’s evolving in terms of

um people’s perceptions on social policy

Uh, it may actually be the democrats that also have to change if this doesn’t swing hard back in biden’s favor

So and chamath when you when you make that statement

I think what’s particularly prescient is the democrats believed that because of the demographic shift from white americans

To people of color latinos black americans that they were just going to win all of them. This is this is the problem

This is the problem with the stupidity of the establishment

Like if you take a thousand brown people and put us in a room

What I will tell you is just in case here’s a fucking memo for all you white people out there

We’re not all the goddamn same

Okay, and if you put a thousand black people here’s the memo

Now for the democrats and the republicans, they’re not all the same

You can take a thousand hispanics and it turns out they’re not all the same

So maybe you know, you can take a thousand straight people a thousand gay people

They’re we’re not all the fucking same

So maybe what this means is that we’ve moved past color

and now ideology and social policy and economic and monetary and fiscal all of these things that the totality of how

a rational

well-developed person

Makes a decision maybe that’s at hand and before if we historically only thought, you know

Older white men and white women could do it. Maybe now it actually applies independent of color and gender

yeah, I absolutely agree with that and I would add to that that um,

Uh, if trump’s victory in 2016

Laid waste to the republican establishment if he wins again tonight

it will lay waste to the democratic establishment and the theory of the case that they’ve had for 20 years the sort of uh,

share, uh emerging democratic majority

case that

They just had to sit back and let demography become destiny and they could just uh,

graft an identity politics onto the same

Neo-liberal economic agenda they’ve been pushing since the late 1980s and it would all just somehow magically produce

Um majority results in the country. They are going to have to go back to the drawing board

And and I think get more populist themselves

and come up with some kind of version of politics that is

Isn’t it more in the bernie mold? It needs to be left but not woke. Isn’t it going to be socialism?

It’s it probably is going to be socialism, but I mean

That’s not like if you if you lay waste to the center

You know your left like I mean, that’s basically what happened

Republicans and now if you’re saying the same is going to happen with the democrats this time around you’re going to have aoc

Running for president in four years

And she won’t be the right brand though, because she’s woke

Guys, there’s you need a sherrod brown

You don’t need uh aoc

We need a charismatic democratic candidate. Somehow. Sherrod brown keeps getting elected in in increasingly red. Ohio as a old school

gravelly voiced irish labor democrat

And somehow bernie ignited a movement as a very old school, uh, gravelly voiced, uh, jewish democrat

uh, neither of whom gave a damn about identity politics really they were principally concerned with inequality and

uh

Income redistribution. I uh, I want to I want to don’t want to see that happen

But I think that’s the only path forward for the democrat

Hold on, let’s let me go to phil because phil had something he wants to add there and then we’ll go to you

Yeah, I want to say that we needed for the democrats and uh

They just needed to I think they needed a very they needed a charismatic powerful leader with a lot of charisma

I mean, I know that you know the I was hanging out with one of the trump guys

It was with him on the plane in the 2016 election. He said that you know, he outworked hillary

There’s no doubt that he outworked biden. I mean this guy’s going to seven rallies a day

Um showing up with a ton of energy and he has you know, like him or not

He has a lot of charisma. Also. I can’t help but think that you’re talking about

repeating

Repudiating sorry i’m getting that word wrong

Um to me this is all about I think a lot of people are really scared of socialism

Okay, and I think it’s just like even the young people that you know, even the young people

You know who say that they love it

They’re looking at their path to the future and and with and you know, they can they can still do great things

There’s no doubt you can still be a 20 year old and and make a billion dollars by the time you’re 30 or 40

And I think with socialism that goes away

I think that um

Look, I uh, I I think

if trump does win, um

I don’t think what it means is that you need a a person that’s

At the extreme left to win. I actually counterintuitively would say the odd the opposite

Which is that you need just a more credible centered

person now that may only be possible if the democratic party cleaves in two

And the reality is the republicans may actually quasi cleave in two independent of whether trump wins or not. Anyways

Um, and we’ll see as david said how some of these senate seats break because if that goes in a different direction

You know, for example if trump wins, but we have you know a democratic tie

In the senate, maybe that’s not possible

um

But I think that would say a lot around

um the need for

Pragmatic but more youthful leadership

Okay, I want to go around the horn right now. What is your gut telling me?

Who is going to win given what we know right now?

Everybody give it a thought. Uh when you’re ready look into the camera and I will call on you michael

You’re looking into the camera who’s gonna win if you have to pick one right now michael. Give us your best guess

The winner of the recount in north carolina because that would tell me a lot but uh

Uh, i’ve increasingly think trump is going to win

Okay, phil you’re looking in the camera. Who do you think is going to win? We’ve seen this movie before

Um, except that hillary was actually five to one favorite last time and I watched these numbers go straight up

And now i’m watching the same thing. It seems like although I will say this, uh

You know sax has been posting some stuff within our channel about the numbers popping up and down

I’m getting texts and they are popping up and down but still the lowest i’ve seen is 2.5 to 1. I think trump wins

trump wins

Who do you got sax?

Well, i’m gonna assume the betting markets know something. Um,

i’m still

a little bit unclear on north carolina, um, because I saw some tweets that biden had won it by a few thousand votes, but

the um

the the north carolina website is showing

Um that actually trumps ahead by like 70 000 votes, so i’m not sure who to believe. Um,

and

I’m gonna i’m gonna go i’m gonna i’m gonna go with what the bad markets are saying which is trump and um,

you know, I thought that

He I thought he had a much better shot than the polls were reflecting and that’s what it’s looking like

What do you got freeberg?

Donald trump took on coronavirus for us. He killed it

He is our true leader and he will prevail

Here in the united states of america tonight

At least the betting markets are telling me and the treasury markets and the smp futures are telling me that donald trump’s gonna win

But I do think that the fact that this guy has never conceded defeat to anything in his life

Gives him a huge leg up and he uh, you know, he’s he is like steve jobs

He warps reality and he tells everyone I am going to win. I have killed coronavirus and

It happens

Wait like a jedi knight. It’s like a jedi. Yeah

All right

404 so far picking

Uh exactly 7 45 pm california time chamath

Who do you have at this point if you had to shove your chips all in?

Uh, I still think the path is um

um

Uh, I um

I think it’s biden and I have the advantage of some information which is that uh, they just announced

breaking news

They aren’t counting mail-in votes in philadelphia tonight

And I uh i’m going with so so we don’t know

Uh

pennsylvania tonight

So if it’s down to a few thousand votes philly, I think is going to break

I think you can count that as three or four

hundred thousand votes

Yeah, and it should be it should be five hundred thousand. It should be five hundred thousand

Well, then five hundred thousand would carry the state for joe biden. Yeah, they’ve been um, so a hundred thousand

so i’m gonna i’m gonna stick with biden here because I think that uh, that philadelphia vote count is uh,

Crucial it turns out that it may it may come down to philly

Which by the way, okay, what an incredibly poignant place

For the election to be won and lost

The city of underdogs the city of rocky, uh

I I think we can safely say that biden is going to win the popular vote and it might be by

four points five points, which means that there is a discrepancy

Uh between the popular vote and electoral college. We’re going to hear a lot about that because uh, I

I’m gonna go with biden because

My heart is going to be so broken

if this country

Picks this sociopath to run it for another four years

After his absolute failure to content to do even the most modest things

to

battle coronavirus and the strife he has caused

Between americans and his personal style is so heartbreaking to me

That I don’t know

that I can

believe in america if they put this absolutely sociopathic person

Who has the least amount of character of any other human being anybody on this call has ever met in their lives

It would be a complete absolute utter disgrace if he makes it into office for a second term

What do you really exist? Are you going to respond to that?

Well, look, I mean the american people hold on it’s an existential threat it’s still going higher

Planet and humanity and democracy across the world

If this country puts that maniac into office again for four goddamn fucking more years

I’ll make a prediction. That’s my personal feeling. I can’t I don’t care what the statistics say right now in my heart. I cannot

Give that man

Even a benefit of the doubt if he wins garbage if he wins is fauci the first guy fired

Oh, I think you can count on it and fauci fauci and christopher ray the fbi director and on right and increasingly maybe

And somehow

Shred of credibility or honor

Is gone. I wanna I want to just say to to jcow. I um, I really

empathize with how you’re feeling because

Um, I have never as a person that has been a citizen of three countries

When I moved to america in 2000, I have never really I mean, you know edge cases

Yeah, I felt some racism here, obviously

You know, I’ve but i’ve never felt so unwanted

and I remember

2016

For the first time in my life feeling a level of insecurity

I had never felt before because I was so afraid I didn’t know what it meant for donald trump to be elected

four years later

um, you know in in so many ways

Uh, it’s like two realms of a coin, you know

um, I leave my house and

uh

You can just see that there’s just so much pain and divisiveness. I come back into my little world and

Things seem to be really great

and that’s a

Really really terrible feeling to have jason. So I I know exactly what you’re talking about. I wanted to tell you guys

um, you know, I

There was like a I i’ve always been sort of like, okay biden’s gonna win biden’s gonna win biden’s gonna win

And then there’s a weird thing that I did and you guys can see it in the fec filings

But I gave a million bucks this year in the elections, but I gave 750 to the senate and I gave 250 to biden

And I didn’t understand why I did it

um, and I and I and I explained it to nat as

She’s like, why did you do it that way?

And the best way that I could explain it is I I think that there are so much I don’t know about what is driving

the vote for president that I wanted to make sure that

You know, there are checks and balances and the best check and balance was to

You know make sure that there was actually some senate

um

Check and balance on biden. I mean on uh on trump. So

You know, i’m i’m gonna jason i’m gonna accept the result. Um

I’m gonna try to figure out what the fuck I don’t know because this is yet another layer of

I clearly don’t know what the hell is going on. Um

But I I can tell you pretty assuredly guys, uh, any result that’s called tonight I think is going to be

Uh incomplete because they’re not going to call pennsylvania because they’re not going to call philly

and so if there are in fact

Three no, I think that the exact math is about

350 000 votes

That show up in philadelphia a gap of 350 000 votes that show up in philly

Um biden will uh do what he needs to do, by the way, how many people live in philly?

Does anybody know how many registered voters?

Friedberg’s is that is it is that on?

Philly, there’s supposed to be it’s supposed to be like half a million votes coming in there and I think they’ve counted a hundred thousand

um, and so I think it’d be more than half a million usually the dims, uh

Margin is about half a million the margin. Yeah, philly is uh, I want to say our fifth or sixth largest market

They’ve actually got it listed. It’s a pretty significant population on that that link. I sent you there, right nick

and then if you click on uh, click to view precincts reporting

You can see the

Sorry, it’s it’s tough to read

Yeah, I mean we care about allegheny

And then what else do we care about?

You care about philly and you care about those immediate suburbs outside of philly like box county and chester county and

now there’s four or five ringed suburbs of philly that

used to be

the

Uh centerpiece of country club republicanism. They’re the counties that elected arlen specter to the senate but over time as the republicans moved, right?

They moved more to or toward the democrats michael. Do you know why they’re going to stop reporting? Um mail-in ballots tonight?

Why would they do that? They just probably just uh to go home and uh sleep for a while before they pick it up tomorrow

pennsylvania, unfortunately and michigan as well

Are states that aren’t allowed to start tabulating until all the polls are closed?

Uh, that’s why those uh states in the sun belt. We were all looking for

Uh to be a early bellwether because look at that guys. They can count

4.81 this is

unbelievable

unbelievable

Well, what are we seeing here? What’s unbelievable chamath? So what that means jason is that uh in philadelphia, there are

1706 precincts. Okay of those only 82 have reported the their ballot tallies

So you have 95 percent of the precincts in philly

Not reporting if you take michael’s framework and say there’s a swing of 500 000 votes if it goes

Historically democrat as it has in the past you attack on 500 000 net new votes

to um

To biden and you know, and uh, he uh, he ekes out a win. Yeah, it goes blue probably in that scenario. Yeah

So then it becomes about but remember though

If trump is holding, um

If he if he manages to hold michigan

He could lose pennsylvania, it wouldn’t matter

Uh, he had a little bit of a margin. He had what he had 306 electoral votes last time

Uh, so if he holds everything he had minus pennsylvania

Actually could lose michigan too as long as he carried wisconsin. He has to have one of those two

But I think wisconsin’s difficult. So by the way, uh

For all of our uh listeners and watchers in new jersey, they legalize recreational pots. So go out and get yourself

yeah, i’m gonna i’m I just took four gummies after my little tirade there because

The two xanax weren’t working

So that’s gonna get really strange for me in about an hour

Just to go back the reason I mean are we gonna crack a bottle of wine or what somebody

I already got one. Yeah

This is mostly coffee, but trust me. There’s some irish whiskey in here

I guess i’m speaking to you, but it looks like i’m seeing reports of the sound of arizona, pennsylvania, michigan and wisconsin

Unfortunately, all four of those states are going to probably take at least a day arizona

three days I think to count

maybe not this year because

So much of the vote was early. Maybe it’ll move faster, but they are notoriously slow counters. So

Settle in it could be the weekend before we have a result

Wow

Okay, so let me just drop this if we don’t know tonight

What

is going to happen over the next

week

Well, we’re gonna be we’re gonna be we’re gonna need a lot of gummies jason

No, I mean joking aside

There I think everybody’s gonna be tense jay

I think I don’t I don’t think you’re gonna see a lot of action one way or the other I think that people

I think people in america are incredibly good people. I think that folks are just gonna sit tight

And hope that the folks whose job it is to do their job do their job

Um, I I but I hope you’re right shemoff

But when I see a group of trucks surrounding people’s cars when I see people bringing guns on both sides

Horrible people on both sides bringing guns

malicious style

To specifically taunt each other when you see people getting shot in the street chasing each other down over politics

This is something that has not happened in our lifetime

I mean phil’s very old so he kind of remembers the 60s, but for the rest of us under

68

we

We have not witnessed

Americans shooting each other in the street over politics. We have not witnessed people taking people out of their lives

because of politics

And this is got trump’s fingerprints on it from well, you mean since this summer?

I mean, what about all the looting and rioting and protests?

My point is when trump got in office

his

character

And his ability to trigger people his ability to abuse people

His rhetoric put everybody on tilt. I’m not saying people looting stores are correct

What i’m saying is george bush

And ronald reagan your heroes

Bill clinton obama other people’s heroes on this call

There was a there was a a kindness in our differences and when people conceded they conceded with grace

and this individual this horrible human being bush wasn’t a hero of mine, but um

I’ll putting it aside. Yeah, I think reagan maybe bush senior was yeah

He look I respect him he’s classiness and we had a mutual respect for each other that this deranged individual

has removed from america

And so jason i’m not going to defend what’s going to happen in the next week

Because i’m not i’m not defending each other leading up to this. I think the next week

Could be incredibly violent

Thank you for that

Now look, uh jason i’m not going to like disagree with you about any of that

Um, I the the only thing I would add though is I do think that the media has been a co-equal partner

in sowing this chaos and divisiveness, um

Because you know, we used to have a media that thought its job was objectivity and neutrality

Yes, and they ripped the umpire jersey off their back to go after this guy trump and um,

And why do you think they did?

money

It’s very profitable trump trump has made big money picking aside picking aside is is definitely more profitable to get more subscribers

It might also be that they were absolutely

Suffering from trumped arrangement syndrome from the fact that the person lies

And that he wants to separate children from their parents at the border

Listen, yes, but they’re supposed to they have a job to do they’re supposed to be neutral

They’re supposed to be a rational opposition to trump

Yeah, but exactly but the but the reason why trump is doing well

Or better is because the opposition to him is increasingly irrational

And um, and people have voted for trump to to basically give the middle finger

to

You know to to the to the media who you know again who are taking sides to these big tech censors

You know who don’t want us to read things that are critical of trump

um, you know and so on down the line, I mean

I I tweeted earlier. I mean rich. Lowry had a great post

Explaining why if trump was going to win why you know why that would happen and

It’s because he’s the only middle finger available to these people and uh

You know, I don’t disagree with you. He’s not being no one’s voting for trump because of his

Integrity perceived integrity. Oh, no or um integrity. It’s the first time I’ve heard integrity in the same sentence as trump

I thought you’re i’m agreeing with that point. Um, i’m saying they’re not voting for him because of that

They’re not voting for him because of even a second term. They’re voting for him in order to stop

Cultural forces they don’t like

Uh, I have two things to say decidedly by the way two things to say. Um,

according to um

The national political writer for the philly inquire

Jonathan tamari his tweet

Of 7 35 p.m. Said actually it was even greater than we thought there are still 2.2 million

Mail-in ballots to be counted in pa about 87 percent of the total

So if that’s true, then we have that and philly number one

The second thing I wanted to say is that if you actually look at the sum counts right now in pennsylvania, it’s 371

591 votes that separate trump and biden

Wow, so

It’s uh, you know

Not that much guys if 2.2 million vote votes are outstanding

Yeah, but if it’s if it’s two if it’s let’s see 60 percent or two-third kind of

To one third slash 40 percent

And it’s not let’s say it comes in under that right. They probably counted a couple hundred thousand already. I mean, it’s still pretty close

Yeah

Um really close. Let me um, let me ask

Chamath do you think that part of the reason we’re seeing futures markets jump?

and the dollar

jump and um

Uh, and all the kind of obviously correlated assets moving the way they are is not necessarily because of a trump win

But because the risk of a hung election seems to be coming out of the system right now

That it seems like we’re gonna have a much more clear outcome here than we thought we would

Florida is going to be much more clear. That’s always a worry state

Um, georgia is going to be clear

Obviously, we’ve still got pennsylvania to kind of figure out here

But it seems like this is going to break one way or another whereas a lot of folks were concerned

We’d end up in the court fighting over hanging chads for months and there was concern in the markets for months about that

um, do we think

No, I think that people were basically

um

Look, there’s a reason to be long biden in the markets

Which is essentially that there are certain sectors of the economy that would have done very well

um

Those sectors of the economy were probably slightly different than trump’s

Under a trump regime. The reality is that corporate taxes broadly speaking are not going to go up and so, you know

You can forecast higher earnings power for every stock and so everything goes up. Um

I think what’s happening right now is more of that relief trade of maybe trump was winning so you could be kind of long everything

blindly

um, but you know the real canary in the coal mine was like if you looked at tech futures tech futures was just going

Bonkers when they thought he was going to win

Because they will probably disproportionately benefit of just having to pay no taxes because they pay no taxes today

um, I um

So so that’s like kind of like what I what I think is happening on on that side

I mean trump is very pro business. That’s why the markets are ripping, right?

I don’t know. I mean, I feel like there was a real concern like there was a

a non-zero case here call it a 30 percent case that we were going to get stuck for a few months with uncertainty and

litigation about where this election was going to go I think I think it’s fair to say that we we still we we could

still have that david because

We don’t if if this goes to tomorrow

I think it’s fair to say that that the game theory would tell you that tomorrow whoever loses pennsylvania

Should ask for an immediate recount, right? Right, and I don’t know what the pro they have to I don’t know what the process for that

Is if whoever loses, um, arizona should ask for an immediate recount, you know

Whatever is possible under the law. I think both biden and trump will exercise because let’s face it

This is the highest stakes possible. And so you would hate to not if it’s a margin of a few

Thousands of votes or tens of thousands of votes or even a hundred thousand votes and you’re allowed to do a recount

so, um

If that’s the case tomorrow morning if we go to bed in another hour and a half or if we finish this thing in another

hour, and there is no

winner

Clear winner. I think markets will be back to sort of modestly risk off tomorrow

So david your thesis is that your thesis is a clear winner the markets rip either way

I think yeah clear winner. It’s just like there was a lot of grinding expected here that was going to cause a lot of

You know

trepidation and bouncing for a while that

Folks were concerned about and if you feel like you’re going to have a clear election outcome or whether or not it gets litigated

If you feel clear about where it’s going to go because it’s 55 45, you know

Sure, they’re going to ask for a recount. It’s good news for everybody. It makes sense

Look, I think the market does not want those trump tax cuts repealed stocks just ripped after

um trump passed those corporate tax cuts, so

um if

Either trump wins or the republicans hold on to the senate

Then that would be a reason for the market to rip

It doesn’t mean it doesn’t mean trump has to win but but but if we have divided government gridlock

So between the two of you the best best possible scenario for the market is if trump clearly wins

Okay, I think I think we have another best online. Is it the case if we look at the senate races?

Um, I don’t know if anyone I don’t know if there’s an easy way for us to pull this up

But do we have go pull that up david and and I just want to introduce our next bestie guestie brad gerstner is here

He oh, yeah

Brad runs a uh multi-billion dollar. I believe you would call it a hedge fund or a fund

Yeah, and he invests large swaths of money in the american economy

Has a very is he the best travel investor of all time jason calaganes?

He’s up there but um, he

Certainly, I would I would guess brad with covid and airlines being grounded. This has not been the easiest year for you

So apologies, no brad brad just made 10 billion dollars on snowflake. He’s fine

snowflake

Brad uh, what’s going on? Tell us what’s going on. What do you know? Well, um, hi y’all

um

you know

it’s a um

It’s a fascinating night. I mean all markets are ripping

We’ve had a massive reversal in the nasdaq a massive reversal in the bond market

um

And it it appears that you know, everybody’s now who is worried about a trump victory is now celebrating a trump victory

um

You know, one of the things people didn’t understand

About a clear biden victory is the underlying concern in the bond market

Right if there’s one thing to explain the expansion and multiples in the market this year

Is the fact that rates have collapsed?

Right, so the 30 and 10 year went from

You know, a couple hundred basis points 20 months ago to basically 50 basis points in august of this year

We’ve seen them back up about 40 percent over the course of the last couple months

We see them backing up again tonight

The fact is the the market is seriously concerned about higher rates

which are the result of both a

turbocharged economy too much stimulus on top of

You know, uh vaccines and prophylactics for covid and so, you know, if you ask me

You know, we get all excited about the election

We get all excited about stimulus and tax policy, but the biggest elephant in the room is the fed and rates

That’s the 80 to 90 percent factor in the market this year

in q4 of 18 and so what i’m

What we’re looking at, you know, we see the the nasdaq now up 350 bips

The future is up 350 bips. So that says trump’s winning. We’re not going to break up the tech companies

We see the smp starting to rise again, and we see the bond market falling saying that we’re going to have lower stimulus

Right in the market

um

So, you know, I I’ve heard i’ve heard y’all talk about

You know a clear victory certainly is better than not a clear victory

um, but you know

Notwithstanding our own fucking anxiety that we have to live with for the next four years

In the short run the market is clearly voting on. Um,

You know is is voting that trump is a palatable alternative

Um, and I would tell you to keep your eyes on rates

Brad what you’re on the market brad more more than uh, a great manager of money

You’re actually a great human being but you’re also very wired into

the dems, um, what are the dems getting wrong if they lose today?

Well, you know

First this is an upset already tonight

Let’s call it. This is a massive upset

relative to expectations

Win or lose the reversal in in the betting markets the reversal in the stock market

You know, I was just earlier tonight

You know a well-known

Organizers house, uh on the democratic side. I mean there is despondency. This is a massive upset

uh by trump

And once again a massive misread by the progressives and organizers in the democratic party

You know, I had my 84 year old mother out here from michigan over the weekend

And i’ll tell you that ordinary people

Are made to be to feel bad about themselves

By people living in these parts

the sanctimony

that exists

in urban areas

you know and coastal elites is just

it’s

You know, this is what we’re seeing people vote against

Right the idea that you’re going to close down the state of michigan not allow people to take their boats out on lakes

This is just you know, not something that people are willing to tolerate and I think more than anything else tonight

You see a protest vote

against sanctimony

um

And this is just ordinary people saying

That you know, let us live our lives

Don’t act so much smarter than us

Um, you know and you know, I asked my 84 year old mother

You know who she voted for she goes don’t ask me who I voted for

That’s none of your business, right? Like that’s her way of telling me right that uh,

You know that

She’s frustrated

By how people in san francisco make her feel

Living in michigan. I I think that’s I think that’s right. That’s so smart. But david sacks before you talk. He’s talking about you

Well, no look I mean i’m on twitter and I

echo

Technology extremely. I mean, it’s usually vcs

Basically, they can’t comprehend how somebody could have a political opinion that’s different than them without that person literally being evil

I mean, I see this on twitter over and over and over again. I’m like really

yeah, but but but but this is like most of silicon valley and i’m just like

Look, I mean political opinions are like assholes

I mean everyone’s got one and to think that yours is a lot prettier than everybody else’s and it’s a bit ridiculous

um, welcome everybody to the

Podcast if you’re just tuning in well the family hour just ended. There we go. Wait, brad brad. Can I ask a question?

Yeah, what um?

Like what what do we do?

Yeah

Yeah, you know for me listen a trump victory the reality is we’ve learned to tolerate

the anxiety over the last four years and I think the market’s fully prepared to

uh to manage its way through another four years of trump, so I think that’s you know, the reason we’re seeing

The the futures react the way they are is it’s a whole lot of nothing

I mean the fact that the batteries you’re asking how do we get off of our horses if we’re on horses the social elites?

Well, I mean, um

This is going to take a complete rewiring

right like an abandonment of um

You know the I mean listen you you and I all know the exodus of people out of the bay area right now

Right. The fact of the matter is like pragmatic politics in the democratic party in the state of california

vacated long ago

And

You know that is not a recipe for victory. It’s not a recipe for victory at a national level

It’s not a recipe for victory or tolerable victory at a state level. I think we’re going to have the single largest migration

of

economic

Uh the single largest economic migration in the history of this country the convergence of covid which allows people to work from anywhere

And the risk of changing tax policies in states like california

Is going to cause mass economic migration and I think that people are voting with their feet and they’re voting with their wallets

And they’re voting, you know tonight in in loud numbers no matter where this where this comes down

This is an upset and a defeat for what democrats expected to occur tonight

Do you do you buy the framing brad that this is about political correctness versus cancel culture?

Yeah, I think that’s I think that’s a big part of it. I mean like, you know, um

I think it comes out. It’s it’s amplified this year because of covid but it comes down to something very simple, which I talked about

Um, you know, sometimes my sister likes to call me fancy pants

Right. She’s like, oh you fancy people live in san francisco. You have all the answers

Right. This is just the way that people in indiana and michigan and ohio

They’re made to feel every day. You know, they don’t sit around watching fox news

These are not people who are racist

Right chamath. I heard you say earlier tonight

The idea that trump could pull what he’s pulling and yet if you talk to all of our friends

They would have you believe that it was just a small band of

You know racist pickup drivers carrying trump flags. I mean they are their head is in the sand

Their head is in the sand. Yeah, this is this is ceos. Yeah, you know, these are business owners

These are small business owners. These are farmers. These are old people. These are young people

I mean the the millennials you can’t find a millennial in the state of indiana or michigan who supports biden, right?

You can’t find them

and I mean just to add to that point about what they think about people in san francisco, why shouldn’t they think that when

Tech giants and the people who work at these big tech companies like twitter and facebook are asserting a right

to censor articles that they don’t like and trying to

Assert a power over what the american people get to see and read

I mean what a campaign issue that was for trump in the last two weeks

I mean whatever twitter and facebook thought they were doing to protect or help the biden campaign

I mean what a blunder I mean to give trump the issue of censorship in the last two weeks

And then the extraordinary thing, you know

We had that that congressional hearing in the senate commerce committee that I wrote a blog about

And the amazing thing is right on the heels of that after that hearing when we heard jack dorsey got that

You know, he just got grilled. He got ripped apart by the senators twitter doubled down on censorship after that

There was an article by jonathan turley talking about they censored a whole new batch of accounts

And so if anything, you know, it’ll be really interesting to see I think you know

If you think back four years ago facebook was really for whatever reason became the scapegoat

For the election. I think this time around it’s going to be twitter because they have been

So arrogant and their assertion of their right to censor

Viewpoints they don’t like and if the republicans hold on to the senate

And or the presidency, I think you’re going to see

Jack dorsey become the poster child for this new censorship that they’re going to target

and the paradox friedberg is that

Had they just let that new york post story be tweeted?

Because it’s the new york post this is I mean you may not like the new york post

It may have a sordid past or reputation

But if that had been a new york times story a washington post story or an msnbc story or a cnn story

It would not have been banned because it’s a rupert murdoch new york post story

And because it was salacious

Somebody mid-level inside of twitter decided to ban it

How much you of that do you think?

Plays into what we’re seeing here tonight friedberg, which is

This is not

uh

a small event

This is a large group of people saying

I don’t want anything to do with the democratic party anymore. I just think back to 2016

and um

You know everyone has their own priorities their own individual things that matter to them

And I remember in 2016 or leading up to it

I spent a lot of time in what we call kind of the rust belt and the farm belt

and um

If you’ll remember this was around the time of kind of the transgender bathroom

Um, you know movement. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, and this was felt very much like a coastal elite

um topic of interest

If you’re in the rust belt in the farm belt, you’re like what the fuck?

How is this possibly something people are spending time on and arguing about and thinking about

And the disconnect between the priorities of the individuals that live

in the vast part of the united states

Versus what they read about and hear about others treat as their priority

um, I think is what partially helped support trump getting elected in the first place because the things that mattered to them that they felt

were highly consequential

Um were completely unrelated and not being paid attention to

While other folks, you know that had the money and the power in the big cities

Were focused on social matters and social issues and liberal decisions that they thought were inconsequential

Or shouldn’t be a priority and I think that fast forward to 2020

And it hasn’t moved in the right direction. It’s moved in the wrong direction where the the disconnect is no longer a passive

Difference of priority it’s actually become an active interest

Moving against you and so if you live in corn belt or the rust belt or vast parts of rural america

Um you to your point you’re now not only feeling that there’s this disconnect, but you’re also feeling like this point of view is becoming

um overwhelming and stopping you from having a point of view

And I think whether your point of view is rooted in fact or not, you can base that however you want

um, it just feels like it’s becoming a silencing effect and not just kind of a

You know ignoring the effect and I think let me

Let me just jump in here

I want to come back to this but I want to just jump to something that bogut just tweeted

Andrew bogut. Thank you for this. Um, detroit philadelphia and milwaukee all planning to post vote counts tomorrow as they work through absentee backlog

So if we look at the counts

that really could mean that phil you know, uh, pennsylvania wisconsin and michigan are

Either too close to call or not even yet ready to be called until tomorrow morning

Um, I think let’s take a pause here and let’s go through what the swing states are and where they stand at this very moment

Arizona is an important toss-up state, correct? Let’s pull up arizona nick

Let’s all just take a moment to look at arizona

we’re going to go through about six or seven of these states and just

Get our bearing right now because when we did the quick survey about 45 minutes ago four of us believed

Trump was going to win two of us believe one of us emotionally

one of us

Somewhat emotionally believed that’s where we were at

guys

Guys before you start this hold on before you start this. I just want to read a tweet

Um two two tweets number one from nick builtin when do we get to vote on when we fire nate silver

and the second one

Wait the second one, which is even funnier. He’s named nate silver because all his picks come in second place

Oh ouch

Wow, I mean I I was tweeting you guys for the election. I mean the nate silver thing was a joke

First of all, he was saying that biden was 90 percent favorite and at the same time

He said that if trump won pennsylvania, then he would become the favorite

But you knew that trump was a few points of the margin of error in pennsylvania

So how can you be a 90 percent favorite?

But some but but but pennsylvania is sort of neck and neck. I mean even his own internal projections weren’t consistent with each other

I mean, here’s nate silver one of the best sports predictors in history

He’s been an absolute genius he stepped into politics and now you guys are lashing

Yeah, but this this is the worst case of analytics since uh, tampa bay pulled their pitcher in the sixth inning of the world series

But I mean if we look at what’s happening here, it’s very clear that there are people who are either

Lying to the pollsters because they’re embarrassed about their choice or they may actively be trolling the pollsters

So when a pollster calls them they lie to them to have this exact moment happen

Just like the tiktokers all registered for a trump event

So now we have a level of trolling going on on a national level hashtag poll

I think there’s a simpler explanation and that’s that we’re not all trolls

I think the simpler explanation is that pollsters are empiricists and they’re experts and uh,

like a lot of experts

you you can kind of

You can kind of interpret the trump phenomenon of

Overperforming now two elections in a row is a kind of revolt against the experts

And they don’t see their biases

Uh the way the way they should they’re they’re blind to certain things

There’s really no excuse for how bad they missed this one because michael they may have been experts yesterday, but they’re not experts

Well, this is I mean

This is what trump does

This is why people support him in spite of the fact that I don’t think anyone disagrees with jason’s

Opinion of his of his character is that they love sticking it to the to the eggheads, you know, brad

Brad, yeah, brad. What happens to um

Media like what happens to how we conduct ourselves?

Like do you do you read the new york times tomorrow and think wow i’m gonna trust the times

I’m, not saying you did before but i’m just using it as a generality to sort of

Ask the question like what happens to media?

No, I think I I think our belief in

You know all of these polls and all of these mainstream press. I mean this validates the arguments effectively that trump has been making

Right that you’ve been told lies

That these polls were lies

That everybody was trying to manipulate you. I mean, it’s this is a

Validation of those who are flipping the middle finger at washington and at the coast

And they’re saying we’re not going to be told how to believe how to think how to vote

um

How to wear masks

How to wear masks and you know, it’s there’s a dangerous side to this 100

It’s the end of expertise. I mean who who can we ever trust?

I mean and this is putin ironically. It’s the experts who got mass wrong. Remember that at the time that I was

Saying that we should wear masks the who was saying we shouldn’t

So they were lying they were deliberately lying to keep uh, ppe from being overrun

By so the experts have done a horrible job on kovat too. Jason. I mean look I think that’s yes, I know but now

the cynicism of trump and his approach to absolutely undermine fauci and say

To and admonish people wearing masks while on stage is a level of danger

And is and is a dereliction of duty. That’s insane

So we know that mass work you actually were a proponent of it. Yes, of course mass mass should never become a political issue trump

Last week said don’t wear a mask. No, he never said he was he literally made fun of a person wearing a mask

Let’s just run through

Each of the states right now

Wait, can I just respond to that jason real quick? Yes, you may of course look look I you know

I wrote a blog post but going back to april 1st saying that we should that mass should be the policy

And it should never have become a political issue. Okay, um, it should have been a bipartisan response

And it’s unfortunate. It became a political issue

um, but

Uh, and i’m and i’m not not forgiving that and it took trump way too long to get on board with mass

I think right around the time my blog was published a few days afterwards first

He said it was optional. You could do it

If you want it took him about another three months to actually say that mass were a good idea

I agree that had he just gone all in on a mass policy. I think this would not even be a close election

I mean that was probably the single biggest

Blunder that he made politically this year. Um 100 agree

Okay, so we agree on that but but but look but you’re missing the other half of it

Which is what is our covid policy going to be today?

And the reality is that joe biden and all these blue state governors are still on the record

As being in favor of lockdowns and in fact, they are doing lockdowns

The only reason why michigan and wisconsin, but I say especially michigan would ever be in play tonight

What was because of lockdowns? Absolutely agree. Yes. This is a resounding rebuke of lockdowns

Let’s uh, just zip through these real quick. Arizona pull it up. Nick

Arizona, here. We are biden

54 if we round up 45 for donald trump 75

Looks like arizona is going to

Uh biden next up. Let’s take a quick look at iowa

um

Iowa 64 percent in and we’re in a essentially a dead heat with yeah

Iowa’s going to trump. Jason. I was going to trump. You can see how that numbers come down. Yeah as as the

Election day vote starts to trickle in that’s going to try it. So they were one of the states that did

the um

Drop-off ballots mail-in ballots first. Yes, I think I think that’s fair to say. Yeah, okay, ohio critically important

Let’s take a look at ohio while we’re here

uh, ohio

Wow, that’s really flipped hard with a commanding lead. Yeah, you can kiss that one. Goodbye. Yeah, ohio

North carolina we are now within one and we just all agree if we were I mean

All right, if we’re momentum investors

I mean this thing is this is a disaster for biden right now

This is a disaster for biden and on top of this all our talk is about the presidency

They’re not going to get the senate either. No, uh, nor uh, tillis is running ahead of uh, trump in north carolina

So I think he’s home free and uh, well the vote in maine is not fully in yet

There’s only about 41 percent collins has a 40 000 vote lead

Which is susan collins keeps her seat. That is the biggest

That that is like the mega upset the democrats were already counting. They were targeting her two years ago after she voted for kavanaugh

Yeah, okay

As we think through this by the way, just keep this in mind cnn right now shows

Um, I mean, I don’t cnn’s head must be up their ass or we don’t know what we’re doing, but they show 192 to 114 biden

um

They called california when the polls closed so that’s 55 it went. Yeah, but okay north carolina, here we go

uh

We we or we did north carolina, I believe

Yeah, we’re at uh, 95 percent reporting and trump has a uh, a lead that looks like he’s yeah

Unless there’s a lot of charlotte out. I think that north carolina is over and that by the way that uh percentage is outside

the recount

Uh window, I think you have to be within one percent

Okay, let’s take a look at georgia for a quick sec and we said that was

Michael, you know if we’ve counted north carolina’s mail-in

I think that I think they were all dumped at the outset, right?

North carolina one of the reasons why we were watching them tonight is that like florida they can count in advance

And so they dumped they dumped a bunch right at the outset here, by the way

I just got it by the way

I just checked the betting lines trump is over a three to one favorite to win the election right now

Later the later it goes the more significant that is wait, why did it come down to 200 on bovado? That’s the lowest it’s been

That’s interesting. I just got three to one on one of the sides

Oh, this has two to one. Yeah, that’s the lowest

If you assume that biden takes arizona

trump takes north carolina

south carolina georgia

Let’s go to georgia. Let’s give him pennsylvania. Biden wins. Arizona

If biden wins arizona he could lose michigan

So georgia is currently 54 just declared that biden won. Arizona. Oh, well, okay. That’s a quick call

uh

Biden’s biden has to take pennsylvania though

Okay. So now this is what i’m saying. This is why this is in place

So if you assume biden takes arizona, so that’s now on the table

Now if you say that trump takes north carolina, south carolina, georgia, pennsylvania, florida, texas, ohio, etc

He still needs

To pull out a victory in michigan

Wisconsin or minnesota otherwise get this or nevada. Well, actually nevada wouldn’t be enough. Nevada wouldn’t be enough. Yeah

Otherwise, let’s go to minnesota guys. Hold on guys. Hold on. Just let me finish, please

It’s going to be if trump so if that happens trump needs to win one of michigan wisconsin or minnesota. Otherwise

It’s 270 268 biden

Wow, okay. So here’s minnesota. Let’s just pause for a second biden with a

biden’s got a

56 percent to 42 with 54 percent in so there’s a lot more to come in

But I think michael you would agree. That’s a bridge too far

I I never thought minnesota was in play. Uh, the republicans the republicans put a brave face on there

Uh, and they are making some gains in the rural areas, but minnesota was never in play

Okay time to go to wisconsin time to go to wisconsin. Let’s take a let’s pause here

We got to do this step by step everybody wisconsin 51 percent to 47 percent

Donald trump with 54 percent that too I think feels like a bridge too far or do we not know if they did?

You know, I think wisconsin is another one who’s probably counted their election day vote first. So

No

So biden is still very much alive in wisconsin. Yeah, exactly milwaukee doesn’t come in until tomorrow morning

Yeah, michigan, we need to take a quick look at michigan and then we’re almost done

Okay, here’s michigan donald trump at uh

Trending to 55 to 44 for biden only 44 are in

And let’s be clear. Is this?

Um, detroit doesn’t come in until tomorrow

Okay, is that michigan detroit doesn’t yeah that that wayne county vote is very low. Yeah. Look at that 28

A lot of more a lot more votes there

Okay, so we don’t know about michigan michigan is very much up in the air

That’s a that’s a pretty good margin for trump there

But I would say it’s very much up in the air

But by the way, if you put arizona in biden’s column, he can lose michigan

Let’s take a look at pennsylvania one more time actually and trumath is right

He could lose he could lose either michigan or pennsylvania and still

He could have trump needs to win michigan wisconsin one of michigan wisconsin or minnesota. So basically forget minnesota

If destroyed so so then if detroit doesn’t show up and milwaukee and green bay don’t show up trump wins

pennsylvania

Chamath does that assume that he wins pennsylvania?

Yes, if I give you if we give him pennsylvania. So again, this is why I think guys

um

It feels like biden

as I said

I’m a little shaky on my prediction right now

Actually, I think the the the betting markets are showing, uh, it’s tightened almost to even

And let me ask brad a question brad if the betting markets are saying it’s almost even in the analysis

We just did isn’t missing any information

Yeah, why are the um futures markets still trading up one and a half points and and why are things still you know?

I I think that listen

the the the stock markets ripped the last two days

Assuming that biden’s going to win

And I think what the markets are starting to

uh price in

Is that this is not going to be a blue wave?

There’s no mandate here for massive tax reform. There’s going to be a divided senate. It’s going to be hard to pass

Legislation that’s going to be overly onerous

That the stimulus package is going to be smaller not larger, which is why the the rates are backing up

So I think from a I think from a public markets perspective

The idea that we’re going to have some checks and balances in place. It can live with either

the the devil we know

Uh, or it can live with biden, but it doesn’t want biden with elizabeth warren as treasury secretary. So democracy survives

I I think scenario three is starting to look very possible a biden and a republican senate and uh,

I could sleep soundly with that

Okay, I don’t know

We’re gonna have I mean you guys I don’t know what odds you’re looking at but uh, but I mean 1.9 is I mean

That’s like that’s a huge significant right there

It’s still good. I give you that but uh

I don’t know those those numbers. It’s moving phil. It’s moving fast. Yeah. I um, I want to I want to take it’s down to 180

Yeah, I want to go back to this topic. Um that that free work brought up. Um, okay guys

Look, we’ll have a winner and it’s going to be close-ish

um

but think of how many people

um

Like isn’t there any empathy for all these people that are that just feel so completely shut out of the system?

Like what do we do tomorrow?

Like irrespective actually of whether trump wins or biden wins. I think brad’s right. We’re going to basically get

You know, nothing much is going to happen at that level

but what do we do at the like on main street, like what are we doing to close the gap between folks so that

You know this entire cohort like literally I don’t care whether biden wins by the popular vote by 5 million or 7 million

You’re talking about tens of millions of people

Bill gurley is now on the line

Another one of our bestie guesties bill. Thanks for joining us. You heard the question being teed up here. This is neck and neck

This is not something anybody at least pollsters came anywhere close to predicting

And chamat’s question I think is a really valid one who has got a greater chance of bringing the country back together

And maybe leading from the middle and maybe healing this wound because this has been the worst four years

I believe in any of our lifetimes

In terms of the anxiety and the anger between people who used to be able to get a loaded question

Well, I want to know bill’s opinion because

By the way bill gurley

Jason bill is the best venture capitalist in the world phil

Phil stop hijacking our fucking broadcast. Go ahead girly

So thanks for having me on. I you know, I think you guys have done a really good job of breaking down why?

People have misestimated this thing. There was a you know, there’s such a rural urban split

There was a there was a really good new york times daily podcast about two weeks ago where they interviewed

Rural democrats in in pennsylvania that had switched to trump

and and all the voices they echoed were very similar to what brad

walked through with his mother and so I do think there’s a

A true lack of empathy for the the center states and the rural areas from the coastal elites

And i’d say part of breaking any of it down would be somehow

Trying to separate that I think a bigger issue

that has really been on my mind lately is just how tribal everyone’s gotten and I i’ve i’ve come to believe that the

the way you can

Probably just ruin your mind the most is to just join a tribe and quit thinking about things

And the number of people I know on both sides that have run off to their tribe

Um is shocking to me and and it’s just not a way to go about being smart

because you know, and and if you anyone that makes fun of a you know,

A religion that’s extreme or something. It’s all the same shit. Like you’re just believing dogma for the sake of it. So I

One of the things that I worry about about a trump victory is is just very tactically in my life

And maybe it’s part of living in california

But a whole bunch of people and things that I want to get solved

Become more manic if he wins like my kid’s school and the companies that I work with

And and kovid quite frankly

I I think that we can’t get past kovid with trump because the tdsers are so convinced that it has to be

Problematic and it’s just you know, so I don’t I actually I don’t know the exact path to solve it

But I I do worry about just being in a world where everyone hates each other and it just doesn’t seem solvable that way

well, this is why I think you know, uh this this scenario, which uh,

We’ve called the soft landing where let’s say you had a biden victory by two electoral votes. The republicans hold on to the senate

Um, I think the radical left gets a big. Um

I’d say rebuke, um or a shock

And we have basically divided government in washington, but it takes the whole temperature down because

you know trump gets replaced by biden, but

You’ve kind of got you know, basically joe and his old pal mitch are in a power sharing arrangement in washington

It could be a really good situation for the country for the next four years

You know temperature would go down. There’d be kind of this

you know

Healing process if you will, um, but you know

There wouldn’t be a whole lot of new sort of legislation that we have to worry about

I think we would get what we want which is the ability to ignore washington for four years

Yeah, but we wouldn’t get a solution to really what ails us

Which is the fact that there’s all these people that just feel completely

shut out and I that really bothers me at some very basic level, which is like

I just think like, you know, I I fought my family my parents

Just escaped some third world fucking shithole to go to canada

And you know canada gave us a lot but it still wasn’t enough for me

I crawled and scratched to get into the united states

Things work out, but I don’t feel like I have a right to all of a sudden. Um

I don’t know just like

Look down on other people or make people feel like shit or not allow people

Do you actually think shamoff that biden is going to do that or do you think biden’s going to know but jason?

I think middle ground. No who who?

Collaborates with the republicans in the senate in the congress

What i’m saying is independent of what happens. We’re going to have basically we’re going to have a photo finish

And what I think what brad said is right

The the fact that we’re in a photo finish

Means that there are a lot of people in pain

And I think we have a responsibility to get our heads out of our asses

And

Stop this sanctimonious holier-than-thou bullshit. I agree with brad when he says that it really hits a nerve with me

Because I feel like there are a lot of people we work with them all it’s rife within the tech culture

And all these fuck bags think they know what they’re talking about all the time and we’re doing a disservice to so many americans

And we need to wake up and that’s what bothers me the idea that there are so many people

Who feel like they’re just getting so fucked?

Really bothers me that bothers me

So I I I can ignore trump i’ll ignore his bullshit because honestly

He’s done nothing. He will do nothing. He is a complete fucking void

um, but whether it’s trump or biden in a 270 268 election

The fact that so many people still use this guy as a vessel

Um, I don’t know that makes that makes me more upset. I think some people I think a lot everyone thinks

everyone thinks

Has some degree of empathy to the problem

I think there are different points of view on the solution, which is where this stuff gets realized

The one point of view is we should have less government involved in our lives in our businesses

And the other point of view is we should have more support and help from the government

And that’s where things diverge very quickly

Um, it doesn’t feel to me like anyone

uh in politics is necessarily ignoring what you’re highlighting and I don’t think anyone in america does from the rich to the poor to the

Left to the right. I think the solutions are miscast because for example, like what are we supposed to do?

Like with our higher educational institutions the people that are churning out all these folks that are meant to go and collaborate and find middle ground

I mean, I clearly like all of this says our educational facilities are completely failing from grade school all the way through to

high school

Um community college college grad school. It’s all just a contrived piece of shit

Right, we are completely putting out one in two people for failure

Okay, so that much is clear

So I don’t see politicians fixing that

On either side of the aisle what I mean, honestly, what are we supposed to do? Well, I mean, I just might I just suggest that

um two things

um

number one, I think in these results that you see there’s a

You know, there is extraordinary frustration

Right with this with the state of affairs the fact that trump in the middle of covet

After four years of torturous anxiety inducing tweets

Could even be in a

neck-to-neck race to win this election tells you

right how

Devastatingly bad people feel about how they’re how they’re being treated. I think that you know

I said recently I mean we have to redraft the social contract this idea

We’ve been living under a social contract drafted post-world war ii

um

That you know, it’s pre-technology revolution. We have a concentration of wealth today in the world and in this country like we’ve never seen

and we have

uh

Republicans that are setting their ways who say, you know, no, no universal

healthcare

You know no reform of the education system. You have democrats who are demanding that you have universal basic income

I think you have to have um pragmatic

smart

Younger politics. I mean the fact that we have two old white men

I mean neither of these folks

Is on top of their game

I mean neither of these and they like this is I mean you can you compare biden to pete budigig

I mean budigig is budigig walks into the lion’s den of fox tv

And tames the lion every night

every night

Right, let’s get pete budigig solving some of these problems

Let’s get some younger ideas on the republican side solving these problems, but we’re going to have to re-architect

Architect that social contract no doubt about it. Um

You know, and I I think the second thing is that you know to me this is

going to be a wake-up call

To the nominating processes in both parties, but but let’s be clear mike pence right has his road map

um

You know for you know how to win the election

indiana governor

Right. He’s going to tap into the same fears that trump tapped into. I mean these fears aren’t going away

Right the exact the exacerbation of the wealth disparity is going to increase not decrease. We see it every day out here

and so

I think you’re going to have to have you know, the democratic party who nominates people puts people

You know forward who can you know who can tap into this brad? Who do you like if it wasn’t biden?

Who would you like?

budigig

budigig he’s a south

This was the you know an openly gay

mayor

Of my hometown in indiana

You think he can sell right who fought who fought in afghanistan

And who goes on fox news every damn night?

Right and has a conversation that leaves

Republicans saying oh that guy’s pretty smart

Right. Yeah, I I agree that he’s a tremendous political talent

Do you think that he’s pragmatic enough brad or he’s he would he would end up veering?

more towards uh, you know sort of like

Politically correct leftist socialist agenda and then have the same result

I think that there is a

There’s been a doctrine in the in the democratic party that to win the primary you got to veer to the left

Right, you got to contend

With bernie, you got to contend with elizabeth warren, but ultimately that’s a losing strategy in in the election

and so I think you’re going to have the emergence of a

Middle of the country governor middle of the country mayor somebody like pete

Um who’s going to run, you know on a smart younger pragmatic

democratic ticket

Um, I think that’s a winning formula. I mean, I think that’s the clinton formula

um, you know obama was a bit of an anomaly, but the clinton formula was a

conservative pragmatic form of of

Democratic party leadership. I mean I suspect that in the next three or four days

i’m going to get a call from the democratic leadership figuring out how much they can count on me and my message to them is

you guys can go fuck yourselves until you figure this out because to your point brad it is

absolutely shameful that

We’re in no, no, i’m serious that we are in I know you are. That’s what I love

Well, but chamath. I mean what you should tell them to do is go form a dlc

Remember the democrat democrat leadership committee that bill clinton formed. So remember what what bill clinton did?

You know when he won in 92 we had three straight republican presidential terms ronald reagan incredibly successful president then

His successor basically reagan won a bush won a third term for reagan, but he was a weak

Candidate and clinton came in there. What did he do? He triangulated he tacked toward the center. Um,

And you know, he he actually passed a lot of bipartisan legislation david david david. Let me make this even more blunt. Okay

um

My million bucks will grow to 10 million dollars per election to 50 million dollars per election as I get older

Okay, so if these motherfuckers want a single goddamn dollar from me

What I want first is a root cause analysis to understand what is actually going on

So to your point before you fix it, you need to be honest and identify the problem

Well, I mean, I I think that I think it’s it’s because the the issue that trump ran against

Was that joe biden was a trojan horse for radical for a radical left that really?

Owns the democratic party right now. That’s what he ran against bill gurley

What do you think the issues are that if we were going to try to have a great reconciliation between these two parties?

between middle america and the coastal elites where you have spent

You know large swaths of your life. I think perhaps you’re the only person here who has lived in both places

Middle of america from indiana

Okay, but you don’t care

I trust your judgment on these issues

but what does the what does the

What are the coasts need to understand about the people who believe who win who live between the coasts?

And what they’re trying to express to us and how can we as coastal?

uh

occupants and citizens do

To kind of bridge this gap other than just moving to austin and getting the hell out of california, which is devolving

Which is what I feel like doing at this point

Well, two i’d have two comments on this one, you know having having listened to

You know as much as I can on on all the of the the voter conversations including this call

Um, i’m not 100 sure that that these people feel

Unrepresented. I think a lot of them want to be left alone. And so part part of what’s being

Engineered or what they fear is being engineered is someone sitting in a city with views that are very different than them

Telling them that this is the world they have to live by and I think the lockdown fit in with that

But a lot of other things too that the the daily podcast I mentioned, you know, there was this guy just saying

What is what does nancy pelosi know about what I want in my day-to-day life?

You know and so there is a notion of being left alone brad’s story about his mom was like hey

We’re fine here. Like don’t don’t bother me

And so there’s a there’s a difference between trying to solve a problem for him and being empathetic to their point of view

and and I would say

um having spent a lot of time in these areas and being a slow talker and sometimes, uh made fun of for that there is a

there’s unquestionably a uh, a a type of

Social bias against rural americans in in urban cities. There’s just no doubt

It’s it’s the only joke you’re allowed to tell without getting

rebuked

In other words, we can make fun of the rednecks and we can oh, absolutely all day long all day long

We can we can do a bill gurley impersonation

I mean if we and this is the thing that I don’t understand when I grew up and I’m curious other people’s opinions here

And i’ll let anybody who wants to jump in on this

It feels like the lessons I was taught in the 70s and 80s which were

America is strong because we’re a melting pot

We take the best of all the cultures and we try to make our own out of it

And that you get to make choices for your life

And in your city town and state that don’t have to be the same as the ones we make in new york

So if you want to have a handgun and you want to put it on your waistband

In texas or wherever and in new york city

We don’t want to have handguns in the city because it’s a little bit more crowded

We can we can have that difference

And we can coexist

And I don’t know when we lost this script

That what makes america great is the differences and that people living in different parts of a very large

diverse country can have different opinions about

You know abortion and and what month abortion is allowed to occur at or the owning of a gun

or

You know

How tall a building can be built?

When did that get taken off the table and who took it off the table?

You know who took it off the table was these hysterical libs

And I think the hysterical as much as this far right trump, you know

Uh, you know flags on pickup trucks surrounding other cars is absolutely horrible to watch

I I have equal disdain for hysterical libs trying to tell somebody who lives on a ranch

That they can’t have a gun when they’ve never even been to a goddamn ranch

And they’ve never had to use a gun to protect their family because then a cop coming to your ranch

Is going to take 45 minutes

And that’s what america needs to get back to is respecting each other’s different lifestyles whether you’re an atheist or you’re devoutly

catholic

Viva la difference let people live their goddamn lives. I think it’s an astute point bill

J cal can we run down california next? Yeah

I’m, very curious how prop 22 is doing and

Is ahead bill gurley

Oh

Jesus the goddamn people are allowed bill. Can you tell everyone what prop 22 is and why yeah, please?

Why why it got?

Yeah, but and and and and it would transition to a whole bunch of conversations about politics that I I feel more passionate about

than who gets elected, which is

if you know

In order to solve the problems that everyone’s upset about with inequality and whatnot

I think you have to have massive innovation and you have to have job growth and I don’t know of any

waves in history where you get a whole bunch of improvement in in

standard of living for broad swaths of a population

without being positively aligned with job growth and

What the where i’m going with this is my my biggest concern about washington

I used to say the main reasons silicon valley works is because it’s so fucking far away from dc

um, and it’s because regulation

Is the friend of the incumbent and it’s the it’s the opposite of innovation. It locks in things and it’s very resistant to change and

Matt ridley’s new book how innovation works goes through this over a very very long period of time. It’s it’s

Fantastic, and he talks about why europe’s gotten stuck and like the top 50 market cap companies in europe

There’s no new entrant in 30 years or something like that

um because of this anyway prop

22 is a california proposition reaction to a law that was put on the california books called ab5

To the best of my knowledge and this is consistent with the editorial groups at the la times the san francisco chronicle and the san diego

Tribune is that it was written entirely by a union the seiu who has no

representation over

Over drivers or gig workers whatsoever. They represent service industry workers

Um, and they would like to represent uber drivers, but they don’t today

And I I think I think about this like a bunch of people living in nevada trying to pass a law

for the citizens of california

Unfortunately because the regulatory capture which which I think is unfortunate on both sides of the aisle

Um, the union’s able through a woman named lorraine

And gonzalez is able to get the state to pass a law

that that

Basically targeted gig workers, which was this new job type that has all these fantastic benefits. Anyway, um,

Immediately thereafter there were several industries who were like, oh we don’t want this for us

So them and their unions and constituents started calling on

sacramento with lorraine and gonzalez and and and carving them out one by one so

By the by the time ab5 was set to be put in action

There were over 100 industries that have been carved out

Because it was a stupid law written just to target and a single industry and it was written with political donor dollars

now in a moment that I would say is

Completely outside of my realm of what I expected

um

all of the newspaper all the editorial boards for all of the major newspapers in

California came to the conclusion that this was a bad law that this was crony capitalism

Written with donor dollars and they all got behind prop 22, which is because we have this ballot initiative

in california as a way for the voters to tell sacramento that they’re full of shit and

That looks like what’s happening right now

Sorry for the long answer. No. No, it’s it’s a great answer. And what what’s particularly

infuriating about this

Um, and listen you and I are both, um, you know, um investors in companies impacted by this

um is that it’s

There’s a group of people who’ve been exempted from this and the list of people exempted

All seem to be just slightly more powerful and slightly

better paid

um

salespeople

uh fishermen

psychologists

Surgeons dentists engineers architects lawyers, etc

And if this had passed or if it still does pass because we’re only at 15 or 20 percent of people

Have been counted so far, but it’s looking like prop 22 will pass

well

in one of the businesses I run inside.com we had to

Uh tell all of the freelancers we were hiring who are writers that they would lose their gig work with us

Because they could only write five stories a year or ten stories a year and vox

One of the big publishing companies, which is incredibly left-leaning as left as it gets

They

Stopped hiring people in california and they fired and laid off all their california freelance writers nick and what this does to

People who are doing gig economy 70 of them are working part-time nick

Can you go back to uh, can you I I need to switch topics nick

Can you go to georgia, please for a second? Uh little little late breaking data

Uh over 400 000 votes outstanding in atlanta and the suburbs. Um, how close is georgia?

Let’s see how oh my god

It’s a statistical dead heat if you add back in 400 000 for all biden

Now i’m just saying that’s not where it’s going to be but uh, they won’t all be provided. Yeah

I mean atlanta atlanta should go 70 percent by oh sure it will yeah, maybe 75 80, but

I guess he’d have to be 100 to 0

to catch up

If i’m reading that right anyone cynic anyone here cynical enough to think that there’s some operative in these states

Holding these on purpose so that they can be the center of importance tomorrow

No, I just think it’s it’s almost midnight on the east coast and people are tired and they’re gonna

Go home and uh, have a shit shower and a shave and uh start again tomorrow. That’s the reason girly is so successful

He always girly always knows how to diagnose the individual motivation

And he can diagnose the shit out of it by just thinking about what one guy’s motive is and then he’s figured the whole

Thing out he makes a billion dollars over master of self-interest bill girly

True

Here’s what it comes down to so trump needs to win two out of four of these states nevada

pennsylvania wisconsin or michigan

and um, he’s got to win two of those four so it’s got to be probably pennsylvania

and michigan or

Pennsylvania and wisconsin, but he’s got to win if he loses nevada. He needs to win two out of those three rust belt states

Or he wins nevada plus like a pennsylvania

Yeah, this is gonna be this is gonna be really michigan’s gonna go to trump this is gonna come down to pennsylvania

um

And really to the to to the philly suburbs. I was reading on twitter. Uh,

Election official in michigan says don’t expect results before friday

That’s crazy well and by the way, I mean so so so

I mean, but let’s just think for a second how extraordinary it is that trump looks like he might win michigan

I mean just to go back to the you know, the the theory of the of the case that we were laying out earlier

Um about how china about how trump picked up this this china trade issue

Four years ago and and and this this time he combined it with the lockdown issue

um, I mean

It’s really amazing that that state

Is leaning trump right now, michigan michigan was two issues

it was

Uh, you know working class democrats

Feeling like trump’s standing up for them with respect to china and it was lockdown

And lockdown wasn’t it was an overwhelming issue

Uh, you know for my for my friends and my folks in michigan for sure

can we go back to prop 22 for a second jason because I think that this is um,

you know

This is a uh, an issue of extreme

importance

you know, one of the things that bill didn’t say is

You know, we’re talking earlier chamath brought up, you know, what’s the third way?

you know, we we

we’ve we’ve built a social contract on the back of

Kind of w2 tied employment for the better part of the last 70 years

We now have a massive part of the economy. That’s gig and it’s not just this is all freelancers

This is all part-time workers and post covet

This is just a massive portion of the economy and the idea

That we’re going to tie all benefits to w2 is just totally asinine. It’s got to be re-architected

And what prop 22 does?

Is say it’s ic plus

It’s independent contractor plus benefits

Right. It’s this idea that we don’t have to tie benefits to w2 employment

Right, so the nonsensical no argument against prop 22

That this was an abandonment of the employee is just that

It combines flexibility

with benefits

And you know from my perspective you’re going to see if prop 22 passes, which I think it will tonight

It’s going to be the architecture that new york and many other states follow

Um, they’re certainly not going to follow the disastrous ab5

example

um, but we also know that it’s not sufficient just to have

uh a bunch of workers with with zero health care and you know, and so I think that this is a

Uh, you know hats off to doordash instacart, you know uber and lyft trying to trying to design something that is a middle way

And you know chamath if we don’t have politicians designing a middle way

Right, then we need leadership out of the business community design in a middle way

well that so you just said something so so profound and I was gonna

I would like to build on that. I think what california shows is that

um

If you have a completely democratic up and down ticket and it veers too far to this

coastal naval gazing socialist nanny state

Then it requires money

and companies

To basically level the playing field because the republicans can’t do it

and

it’s possible to

fight back

And what’s interesting to me is nobody ever talks about

Or or maybe they do and I just don’t hear it about how the equivalent happens on the right

um, it’d be interesting to know if you guys know of any states where there’s just republican up and down the ticket and they

just veer into such a

Detached laissez-faire where the whole state needs to get corrected by for-profit organizations, but it’s it seems like we’re setting up for

democrats versus companies

And people moving to republican states to have low taxes and to be left alone

Well, you know

It’s a sensible set of outcomes in california, right? I mean, do you guys not agree that the uh, the yes on prop 22?

And sax it looks like your commercial property tax

Proposition that zuck helped fund

May not pass. It’s a oh, thank god. It’s a yes. We don’t know. It’s a point one percent differential. Yes

Which I know I agree. It’s look the california ballot initiatives are looking really good right now

it gives me a lot of hope it gives me a lot of hope about the state because

The most anti-economic the most let’s put a business unfriendly ballot initiatives looks like they’re going down

Starting, you know with the win on prop 22, that’s huge. But then prop 15

You know, we talked about that on a former

Episode of the all-in pod. This was chipping away at prop 13, which is the great

Shield of the middle class in terms of property taxes

I’m, not saying you couldn’t get a better tax regime that would

tax commercial property of fair market value, but you sure wouldn’t want to

Give that card away without demanding some structural reform in exchange for it

Which is why I thought it was just so stupid for

You know tech billionaires to be funding, you know, these these ballot initiatives for higher taxes, you know

This is definitely looking like a like a sensible kind of middle ground outcome where a lot of folks who were concerned about california

Swinging all the way left and chasing

Uh business and enterprise out of the state

Um, you know, maybe kind of getting reeled in and I think it gives some hope and gives some pause

Uh to a lot of folks who are trying to build businesses in california to recognize that you know

Hey, there there is a thoughtful populace here. Um, totally agree

And this is this is a great outcome tonight. I feel I I personally feel really good about

I I agree. I mean if this sticks it it’s um

It it is because the the big the big issue with california right now is that we’ve got

You know people we’ve got net migration out of the state because it’s just so hard

Uh for for the middle class to live here and to build businesses here

I hope what we hear, you know, if if we’re fortunate enough for prop 22 to pass

I hear we I hope we see a coalition

Among these companies come together

and really

Promote this as a national architecture

for a

Third way for independent contractors free agents across the country

Uh to have a living wage and benefits

It’s totally detached from w-2 employment. I really do believe

um a bunch of people on this call will were helpful to

an

An effort I launched around the board challenge, you know

It’s high time for the social consciousness of corporate america to take the leadership position

And because it’s not coming out of washington

And there’s so many issues that the solution lies

Among us and we got to stop spending our election nights wondering when somebody’s going to deliver us from ourselves

We got to start delivering ourselves

I think it’s a girl. How do you think you resolve bad unions?

I mean like, you know girlies

Girl, are you still with us? Yes

How do you resolve things with the unions after this? I mean if prop 22 passes

is there a uh a coming to the middle ground with unions and

Or unions always just a kind of directional vector, you know, they’re always like a force on the system

They’re not an absolute or objective, right? They’re uh, they’re just always pushing in one direction

I mean what ends up happening with the resolution with unions or is it just a constant back and forth to try and manage?

The impact they’ll have on policy politics tax

um free market, etc

so from from my point of view the

If you if you think about citizens united which a lot of people were upset about I think rightfully so

uh, because dc is so money oriented like it’s coin operated and a lot of people have

Vivid awareness of it being

Coin operated on the right through corporations. This is why

The most heavily regulated industries are the hardest to break into hardest to innovate against

What what I think they miss is how much of it’s right is is is regulatory capture on the left

And the difference that a union has versus a company is it’s a natural monopoly

And so it actually has more power to write regulation

Than a company does. Um, but and it’s going to be around every single election cycle

so if you listen to them, you know, you get what you want and

the you know people have pointed out that the um,

The gentleman or he’s not a gentleman the the individual that that

That killed george floyd probably wouldn’t have been on the force if it weren’t for the union protecting him

Because of the stuff he had done before

But and this goes back to the red and blue and blindness of just being dogmatic to your party

most of the people I know that are heavily

um

prescribed to the to the democratic tribe refused to acknowledge

That one of the big problems in police reform comes from the unions

And and you can’t see those things unless you take yourself out of that single place

um

I would tell you the california situation. I think is deeper than than maybe what brad talked about there

The the rule the law that’s causing more companies to leave from my perspective than ab5 is something called paga

Which was passed about 25 years ago, but has finally reached momentum where it’s causing problems for companies

and this was a law passed by

Litigators with donor dollars in sacramento that lets any lawyer bring a case on behalf of the state

against the company

And so they they’re basically like local sheriffs just running around bringing claims and of course

They’ll settle every time the the the supposed victims are getting about 10 on average

On paga claims and once your company’s been shook down on three or four paga claims by a lawyer

Who’s only going to give 10 cents on the dollar to these?

People that used to work for you. You finally just throw up your hands and say, you know

I don’t need to hire someone here. I’ll hire someone somewhere else cost twice as much to hire someone here

and so

I I do worry that if any state or country wants to move forward

In in our new economy, they can’t just be completely anti-business anti-tech

um

that I have a strong point of view on that, but

It it won’t work. You’re gonna grind to a halt. Hey, jay. Jason. Can we go back to the senate?

Is anybody prepared to I i’m getting a read from my analysts?

Who are live blogging to me that the senate is almost certain to go republican at this point

With iowa, maine and north carolina going republican

That would do it and michigan and montana both in real danger for democrats, but even if they lost both of those

Um, you’re gonna have 51 49

to republicans in the senate

Hey, brad, why are markets trading down a bit right now from where they were?

Um, I still have it at uh, you know nasdaq 280

Yeah, so i’m not i’m not prepared to call that down. I just think that’s within it’s bouncing and bovada, I guess which is the um,

Nevada just came back up. They stopped taking action now. They’ve got trump

Uh minus 150. Is that how you say it and joe biden plus 115?

So to if you put a hundred dollars on joe biden, you win 15. Is that right?

And if you know you want to you win 115

You win 115

Like that’s pretty close win 15

115 is very close

jason

and

Donald trump if you were to put a hundred dollars in you make 150. Is that right phil hellmuth?

You’d have to know

150 to win 100

Exactly. Got it. Okay

I think the more surprising thing at this point is it’s almost

you know, and i’m certainly going to uh live to regret this but

It appears at this point that the market’s going to be up tomorrow

Almost either way and if you look at what the market was saying last week

Uh, you know just yet another surprise

Um, the market is celebrating the fact that this is a close election

um, but you know if it’s a uh,

if it’s a contested transfer of power and we have a you know, there’s there’s certainly a lot of room for

Uncertainty uncertainty to still be injected into this but it likes the fact that we whether it’s biden or trump

Uh who pulls out the presidency is certainly liking the fact that it’s going to be a close election

Right now just to give people an indication fox news has joe biden at 227 electoral votes and trump at 204

The new york times is at 213 and 136 for trump

The senate on the new york times is 44 dems

45 republicans

And I don’t know how we’re supposed to who we’re supposed to trust here

There’s a senate the senate on fox news is 45 democrat

44 republican

So this is a dead heat which I think could lean us towards the great reconciliation

Which is if trump comes out of office

Biden becomes the elder statesman biden reaches across the aisle. We have a massive balance of power in the senate

Everybody’s forced to work together in order to get anything done. Am I correct in my reading of this as a non-political expert?

Well, what you’re describing is the great gerontocracy. We’ll have 78 year old biden

negotiating

79 year old mcconnell and schumer is what 74 75?

Pelosi’s over 80 stinney hoyer. Her deputy is over 80. So who do we have in the death pool?

Because two or three of those are dying in the next four years

I don’t mean to make it dark, but uh

Just looking at mcconnell and his bruised, uh hands and lips and everything. Uh, something’s eating him alive

i’m, not exactly sure what it is, but uh

That’s a bad bad scene

Yeah

Is that on the betting markets phil?

That’s not on the betting markets and by the way the other direction you’re talking about trump who’s 74

Negotiating. I mean, you know, it’s it’s everybody we’ve got to get younger in our political leadership across the board

Uh, it’s it’s there. It’s ridiculous

Who who had a better chance?

of beating

trump would bernie elizabeth warren or buddha judge would one of those three if you had to pick one of those three and

I think it’s one of those rates or you could pick your other which one would have performed better brad

You said i’m with brad. I’m with brad on mayor pete for sure. I’m with brad on that one here

Okay, so bill you believe mayor pete

Would have had a better performance. He would have been more inspiring

He would have been more energy. I I think that there is a lot of people that that want

what brad talked about which is someone who’s who’s rational and calm and and

Centered and I also think that if you look at the history of

of presidential campaigns

Most americans favor an outsider and I I attribute that to personally to them

feeling like washington’s on the hook and been bought and

You know biden would be an outlier for a lifetime senator. I mean, there was a lot

There was a lot of excitement around obama. There was a lot of excitement about reagan who came, you know from hollywood

There was a lot of excitement about clinton

So, you know a lot of governors a lot of a lot of first-time senators is what you tend to see

And so pete fit that mold

Why some youth and some charisma would be nice

Uh and and david the two davids and michael

Who do you think would have put up the best fight?

because tonight

If biden does win and it’s feeling maybe like that’s going to happen

So it’s it’s clearly a jump ball here. It’s any it’s coming down to the last 30 sec last minute of the game if biden

does lose

Who would have been the candidate that would have?

Beaten trump if there was another one who would have had the next best chance david’s well

Well biden’s still looking pretty good right now

so I don’t know that there I don’t know that there was somebody better, but I do agree that I always was

most impressed with

Buddha judge out of the candidates in the sense that

I thought he was the most articulate. I thought he was the best debater

I thought he was the best on tv and he knew how to reach for the center

and he had the kind of obama thing of

Having identity politics politics working for him, but without making a big deal out of it

um

And um, and so yeah, I mean what you mean by that. Mr. Sacks. Well, he’s he’s gay

He’d be the first gay president, but he’s not making that an explicit part of the reason to vote for him

And but it would have been a first and his voters would know that but he doesn’t want to

You know, he doesn’t want to run on the idea of identity politics. And so so he’s not leading with that

He’s not leading with it. I think that’s a smart way to play it

It’s you know obama was obviously making an incredibly important first

But he didn’t lead with that as the reason why you should vote for him

um, so to a certain extent hillary did lead with that hillary was going to be the i’m with her, you know, and

Was the slogan?

Yeah, and I think a lot of people did want to make that first, but I think

You have those votes. You need to make the case to everybody else

um

So yeah, I think he he’s a great political athlete

and um

You know, someone’s got probably a bright future in the democrat party

I’m seeing some people on twitter say that biden’s now become the favorite but I just checked pet fair. It’s basically 1.1

It’s very close now kind of crazy

This is going to come down to one

This is going to come down to pennsylvania, michigan

And it’s going to take days to do those counts and we’re probably gonna end up in the courts

Friedberg who would have done a better job here?

Look, I mean the market already voted right it voted for for biden

He is the the leading candidate. I don’t know if anyone else would have outperformed biden at this point

I think you know, the next in line was a very different ideology and that’s bernie and

um, you know bernie really is the contrast to um,

You know the points that we were making earlier

you either think that the way forward is to have

The government leave me alone or to wrap me up in a blanket and give me a hot cocoa and rub my feet

And bernie sanders is the you know

The guy in middle school who runs for class president and tells you the vending machines are all going to be free if you elect me

um, and that’s a broadly

You know like everyone votes for that guy

and let me uh

Let me ask you a question brad that I build off of david

I just think the mayor pete thing by the way

Let me just say I think mayor pete is a great articulate thoughtful guy

And he’s certainly appealing to those of us who want to have a thoughtful

Well articulated response to the problems we’re facing

But I think that there is a guttural kind of you know innate um drive that folks want they either want free shit

Or they want to be left alone

And you know you you’re you’re gonna need to appeal to one of those two motives

Brad how would you have voted had your choice been and i’m going to go around the horn on this?

So everybody gets a chance to think about it except really brad

Brad if you had the choice, yep

elizabeth warren slash bernie

Hardcore socialists. Let’s go with bernie since I think he’s even more on the socialist side

or trump

Could you have conceived of voting for trump over bernie or would you have voted actually voted for bernie sanders?

Take your time and you can think out loud when you answer that. No, I mean I I have to say that

um

You know, I have a 9 and 12 year old boy

boys and um the conversation we had is it’s not just about

What you stand for it’s about how you stand for it

character

Character, and I just couldn’t tolerate

uh trump’s character either in my own life my own level of anxiety or or

Standing for that, you know and and telling my boys that that’s a okay way to lead

And um, so for me, I was willing to vote against my own interests

um, and

Taking comfort in the fact that four years under any president is not enough to really change the arc

of uh of of the country

Um, but to send a signal that you know, how you lead matters in this country

In this country

And uh a rejection of this form of leadership

Yeah, but brad if you didn’t think that bernie sanders policies would actually I mean if you thought they would actually pass everything

He wanted to do you couldn’t conceive then of voting for trump

yeah, I mean

you know again, like I would just say that I would have bet that

the system that we have

Would have been slow enough in moving

That that bernie would not have been you know that when weighing those two evils

Right that you know again for me socialism versus trump or you’re doing I can I can tolerate the mean-spiritedness

perhaps myself

um, but you know, like i’m trying to you know, I think it is important that we we say that like this is not

what we stand for this is not a

an honorable way to lead and and certainly when it comes to

Sitting around the dinner table every night and talking to them about the way I expect them to behave in their form of leadership

You know that that mean-spiritedness just didn’t work for me

Would anybody else like to answer that question or is it?

Well, i’m not i’m not going to disagree with any of that, but I would just like to point out

I’d like to ask a question actually which is

if if this president

Was so bad that he had to be impeached. Why wasn’t that a campaign issue?

I don’t remember being mentioned once

by biden

That trump was impeached you would think that impeaching the president would be something you’d want to make a major campaign issue

So I just think this idea that trump is the only one who’s dishonest and unethical

um, you know that whole russian

Insane hoax that they put us through for years. They put this whole country through

Before the guy even took office. They were trying to delegitimize his election

I mean, come on

you can’t just look at trump’s behavior, which I agree is outrageous and not look at the other side and say they’re doing the

Same thing and this is like a they’re they’re they’re sort of like co-equal

Partners in this chaos that’s been uh created david. Let’s they’re co-founders in chaos

Let’s be candid all these politicians that we’ve had to live with in our lifetime are grifters

We know that and their kids are grifters

Putting that aside. Do you think there is any chance?

That the russians have not bought an inordinate amount of apartments from donald trump at extraordinary prices

Are you just making that up or?

I mean, i’m just going with my gut

Right exactly. Yeah qed case in point because you feel it you can now make an accusation

That the president has received bribes from the russians. I mean, come on

Well, we know and actually I want to I want to bring up something election

We all know putin interfered with the election and we all know he interfered on behalf of one candidate

Okay, I I honestly like unless you don’t trust the cia unless you don’t trust the fbi

If you unless you don’t trust our agents really, I mean you believe in the deep you’re still holding the russians

Every election we’ve ever had jason

Than the new york post we had we had bob we had bob mueller with a team of like 18

Like pitbull democratic prosecutors and 50 special

Fbi agents, let me finish what happened to manifer who investigated for two years and they couldn’t find any collusion

I mean come on and you’re still hanging on to this this insane

Fallacy and you’re wondering why the american people are turning

Against why they’re willing to vote for trump again. Come on. Can’t you see the insanity of the other side?

Well, I mean I did see manifer go to jail and pay a 25 30 million dollar fine

And I did see that

Trump’s kids took the meeting with the russians to try to set up a secret back channel

So while they might not have been smart enough or effective enough to actually collude

There certainly was a lot of graph going. This is this is this is on the level

If not worse than the whole hunter biden hard drive story, which I thought

100

Which I thought was a ridiculous story an attempt to smear up biden

Come on

For you to lay this integrity issue on trump alone, which I agree

There’s some truth there and not lay it on his democratic

Inquisitors in the senate who put in the house who put us through this impeachment hoax for two years. Come on

We’re starting to sound a little like am radio. Let’s get it. We did go there. No sax is a free thinker

I like this. He’s a free thinker for sure

But this word impeachment this entire campaign all sax is saying is own both sides of this

Jason can you say the word i’m agreeing with you? Can you say it biden?

Can you say the word impeachment?

Impeachment, I just said, okay. There we go. I was wondering what happened to that word, you know, normally

No, I don’t think it was a winning strategy if normally when you impeach a president it becomes a really big campaign issue

It becomes a really big campaign issue nick. Can you please throw georgia back on the map, please?

Are you guys seeing this that that now they’re tipping georgia back?

to uh

biden

Who is

This is insane

Where well, they’re also saying that arizona may have been prematurely called for biden. So arizona may be back in play for trump

I

Was really weird that they called arizona so early wasn’t it nick and only fox only fox has done it I think yeah

Nick, where do you have? How do you have georgia reporting right now? How much is in right now?

uh, yeah kick on georgia just for a second we have

81

Yeah, the times had it flip on at 9 13 p.m. I have a screenshot which shows biden plus four

And then north carolina is now just trump plus 1.1

Michael isn’t in arizona when they show the reporting it’s precincts reporting, right? It doesn’t show

uh

Mail-ins are by precinct or mail-ins are at the state level. Well, a precinct will have both mail-ins and uh election day votes

uh

And when they and when they say 81 percent of precincts reporting that doesn’t mean that 81 percent of precincts

Are finished reporting. It’s a very misleading

Uh number because what it means that 81 percent of precincts have reported

What they have but doesn’t mean they’re finished counting necessarily, right?

So, you know atlanta is probably the precincts in atlanta have probably reported some vote

In fact, we we see that when we click on it

But there’s obviously a lot of outstanding vote

in georgia

there could be outstanding vote, uh in some precincts in north carolina as well and they

At this point once you get into the 95 percent and above range they do tend to be

Uh urban centers that are that obviously have a lot more vote to count. It gets late at night. They go home

uh

They finish in the morning or three days later if you go zoom in on arizona, please 76

Of voting reporting. I mean, how is this possible?

54 basically, I don’t know but in all those states you’re going to have the intensity you had around hanging chads

and dade county you’re just gonna have

like

massive tension and drama around

Counting each of these last. Oh, yeah, we’re gonna have five floridas

You knew 2020 would do this on the way out the door

Yeah, so so arizona they counted all the the absentee ballots for the mail-in ballots first, but the in-person voting hasn’t been counted yet

So you can’t call that state if they haven’t counted all the in-person because trump’s going to do better

With you know election day ballots, I agree. It’s pretty premature. Well, it depends on whether they’re considering phoenix as part of that, right?

Okay, why is nevada only reporting one percent?

In local news there are now groups of people gathering at oakland city hall

So they they go there when like

What night aren’t they riding in oakland, I mean come on

In berkeley, they smashed a pizzeria window. They do it every other week

Hey, hey guys, I want to I want to just discuss an idea

I have that might be a little bit cheeky

But since j cal and I were getting into it before I kind of want to I want to talk about a little bit

um, okay, let’s do it, which is I i’ve

called the trump derangement score

Um, which is if you go to twitter that yeah trump derangement score

Which is if you go to twitter

And search trump

From your username. It’ll show you how many tweets you’ve you’ve published

That you’ve posted that mentioned the word trump. And um, so I did this before the show to see

Which bestie had tweeted the most?

And see what the score was and my sense is like if your your score is like zero to ten

You haven’t really paid a lot of attention to trump

It’s probably like very healthy and then if you’re in like the 10 to 30 range

You’re paying a little more attention. This could be a normal interest here it comes

Hold on if you’re in like the 30 to 50 range, I think you pretty much are infected. There’s two strains

there’s kind of the magus strain and then there’s the resistance strain, but clearly you’ve tested positive for

trump derangement

syndrome

and then I would say there’s kind of like an advanced level where um

You can’t even count how many tweets there are you’ve got to like scroll and like you keep scrolling

And you can’t even get to the bottom

and that’s that’s like a level of infection where you need to immediately quarantine yourself and um,

so anyway, I I I did this and uh,

And anyway, the winner actually was freeberg freeberg only had he had a score of one. He literally only had one tweet

Mentioning trump for the last four years

I only had eight but in fairness five of them were posted yesterday to advertise this this pod. So I

Um

My one was during this podcast by the way, yeah

20 I had 20

You had about 20 about 20. Yeah

And then jake al you you were in scrolling territory. I couldn’t even I couldn’t even count I gave up

Ha ha ha

Well played

I feel for you. I I really feel for you that you’re hurting over this election

I you know, I don’t like i’m not trying to make fun of you or or see you. Hey guys guys

another just another quick update here that um,

uh decob county fulton county and cop county in georgia are

pro-democrat

They’re huge

uh, and they’re at 31 percent 58 percent and

70 percent and if you play these out

there’s somewhere between 400 and 500

thousand, uh

potential incremental votes for biden

Which would eke out georgia for biden potentially according to

Just this last wow

Just looking at fox news, I think that they’re trolling the libs

Because they have trump at 210

Uh, and they have joe biden at 237

uh

The the new york times has let me just make sure i’m refreshing here and have the latest data

213 to 145. So

Fox is aggressively calling

electoral votes

um

at a level that uh

Uh

The new york times is is far behind like behind by 50

at least a hundred

What what is the explanation of this? Wow?

Uh, I this is I mean, this is nuts. Um msnbc 205 electoral votes for joe biden

which uh

NBC has been the most conservative overall

And what happens if it’s tied it can tie right we still have that scenario on the table 269 269, uh, uh,

Yeah, there’s probably a way to to get there

uh

Let’s see. Well, interestingly, uh

Biden did not get that one

District in omaha nebraska that he had targeted that obama won his first time

That would give you one electoral vote in in nebraska nebraska and maine

Both

you get you get uh

Two for winning the state and you get one for each of the congressional districts. So

Well, while biden was not going to play in overall in nebraska

He had a shot at omaha and that 270 268 scenario. We talked about earlier

Could have potentially been 269 269 if that omaha district was in play

But the polling really missed it michael just to jump in. Uh bg girl

Girly’s gotta hop off boys say bye to girl. Thanks. I appreciate it

Speaking of bill girly, uh, how about texas? I mean, I think I think texas is definitely going to be republican, right michael

Yeah, that one’s trending far away from biden. He looks like he’s down about 500 000. How many points is that?

No one’s called that yet, right?

It’s bizarre that florida and texas are still listed as uh,

Uh, right so that could explain what jacob’s looking at between the disparity and yeah

I don’t blame if if fox called texas, I don’t blame them, but I think arizona. Yeah, that might

That might that would explain your difference jaco texas and florida

Fox. Yeah, fox. Yeah, that’s 60 67 votes right there

Yeah, that explains it. Yeah, so the new york times has not called florida or texas

New york times at florida 98 i’m getting it’s like 99.9 or something right if you add

Uh 38 for texas 29 for florida. You’re 67

67 until the 145

Put you at 212

And joe biden at 213

Which would be one point difference ralph warnock and kelly loeffler and a runoff for the senate seat in georgia

That’s just incredible. I mean, hey guys a comment and then a question

Uh, it looks like the washington post is projecting that california approved prop 22

um, so there’s a uh, that’s the first one that due to

Right now I think right do we have biden is not speaking yet, but he’s he’s getting ready to speak the implied volatility on uber stock

At the close today was 14 percent

By the way, every ballot initiative in san francisco the city level ballot initiatives passed

One of them the prop h was good all the rest were a disaster

So sam so the the state level ballot initiatives were pretty good news for california, but san francisco

Okay, not much not so good

So, you know in in terms of what we were talking about earlier about creating a more business friendly environment

Unfortunately what happened in san francisco? I think california as a whole is positive with prop 22 prop 15

failing

Um, but every single crazy ballot initiative in san francisco passed

So it’s just getting crazier in san francisco

I don’t know if you did this in your household

but with my 10 year old brad, I went through my wife and I jade we we went through each of the

uh ballot initiatives as many as we could we listened to

little encapsulations of

What they were and we talked about the stem cell one

And I just thought why is california?

Which is losing

All of these businesses adding to the tax burden

stem cell research

And why isn’t that being done by the private sector if there is a huge prize to be had with stem cell?

Why would we have california send billions of dollars on this when we’re losing all the this government? I’m wondering

You know how people thought about something like that like the stem cell. Did you vote for that david?

To continue to have california flip the bill first

I by the way, just before you answer david

I took the pages of the ballot initiative and I used them to keep my white truffles from developing humidity

I mean basically the truth of the matter jason is that when when I don’t understand a ballot initiative, I just vote against it

and I didn’t really understand that the some the stem cell ballot initiative or why

Even why if if that was a spending priority why it couldn’t just be handled by the state, you know the legislature

I didn’t understand why that needed to be a ballot initiative

So, you know, I feel like ballot initiatives like i’ll support them when this when the state legislature does something wrong

like it was a perfect example where

You know lorraine or whatever the had this tremendous amount of power passed this crazy ab5 and the people had to overrule that

um, so I feel like that’s where like these ballot initiatives make sense is when you want to overrule the legislature, but

you know, it’s kind of crazy for

To be passing these laws directly when you know, we don’t know that much about them

Concur

I mean the founders had this vision of representative democracy not direct democracy and

That’s generally a good idea

So jason, I don’t know you have to kind of like what director the results that direct democracy has produced tonight

The initiatives may be saving us from ourselves since we don’t have in this state. Unfortunately a viable republican party to represent us

Uh, this the initiatives may be our last line of defense

Well, I think I think you’re right in terms of overruling things but like in san francisco

You know every single ballot initiative path, I think most of them are there’s no saving san francisco. We all knew that

Well, I don’t like hearing that

Come to la baby, we we got a few more years at least

Um, what is the consensus view seems to be the markets are still up nasdaq futures up 280 still

what

What causes us to wake up tomorrow or the next day?

And have the futures down

Three four or five hundred bits. There’s there’s one thing and so far it hasn’t happened. And if we avoid it

We’re going to fade a really big out here

um, which is trump

Declares victory right now

I think that is the disaster scenario because I think biden’s going to get up there

He’s not going to say much of anything. He’ll be very kind of down the middle

You know kind of let’s take a wait-and-see approach. We’re waiting until tomorrow. There’s a lot to go

Grind it out blah blah blah, but if trump comes out and says we won we’re done. Let’s move on

It’s going to be uh panic because look I mean he’s you can’t certify georgia apparently, right?

So, you know there there’s a there’s a path where there’s seven or eight states that have to go through on a meticulous recount

I think this thing is back to a coin flip. I mean trump now has to win

georgia

Michigan and pennsylvania

In order to win the presidency if biden wins any one of those three states he wins

He has to be a three for three in georgia pennsylvania

and michigan

Three for three and god

Well, but we’re saying that may that may become ungod. Um

So if if he loses georgia, he loses if he loses pennsylvania, he loses if he loses michigan he loses assuming he’s already

um lost wisconsin and

Um and arizona, so hey guys biden’s coming out, but my analysts just run this analysis

If biden wins ann arbor and detroit by the same percentage as 2016

That’s 420 000 biden incremental votes versus the 300 000 current trump lead

Just apply the math and he wins michigan. We feel good about where we are

We really do

I’m here to tell you tonight. We believe we’re on track to win this election

We knew because of the unprecedented early vote in the mail-in vote

That’s going to take a while

We’re going to have to be patient

Until we uh, the hard work of tallying the votes is finished

And it ain’t over till every vote is counted every ballot is counted

But we’re feeling good

We’re feeling good about where we are

We believe one of the nets has suggested. We’ve already won arizona, but we’re confident about arizona

That’s a turnaround

We also just called it for minnesota

And we’re still in the game in georgia, although that’s not what we expected

And we’re feeling real good about wisconsin and michigan

And by the way, it’s going to take time to count the votes we’re going to win pennsylvania

Yes

There it is

Let’s talk to the folks in philly allegheny county scranton and they’re really encouraged by the turnout and what they see

look

You know, we could know the results

As early as tomorrow morning

But it may take a little longer as i’ve said all along

It’s not my place or donald trump’s place to declare who’s won this election

That’s the decision of the american people

But i’m optimistic about this outcome

And I want to thank every one of you came out and voted in this election

And by the way, chris coons and the democrats. Congratulations here in delaware

Hey john the gov, yeah

The whole team man. You’ve done a great job. I’m grateful

to the poll workers to our volunteers our canvassers

Everyone who participated in this democratic process

And i’m grateful to all of my supporters here in delaware and all across the nation

Thank you. Thank you. Thank you

and folks

You heard me say it before

Every time I walk out of my grandpa’s house up in scranton. He yelled joey

Keep the faith

And my grandma when she was alive, he’ll know joey spread it keep the faith guys. We’re gonna win this

Thank you. Thank you. Thank you

Oh my god, well there you guys before

Before before we just I just want to give a big shout out and thank you to brad gersner. Um, thanks brad incredible investor and person

And thinker. Thank you bg for uh

Being on the call. Thanks for having me guys. I really appreciate it

Thanks to bill girley who stepped in and phil helm youth

Uh, this has been a great first time effort. Uh

We we had uh, I think about 4 000 of you at the peak

Here and and certainly five or six thousand over the night. This was an experiment

I think a successful one

Um, and of course i’m speaking about this country america. What a successful experiment it has been

Jason you can unclench

Your your nether regions because I think we’re going to be okay, I think we’re going to be okay

Yeah, it’s very tight. Anyways. See you guys. Good night. Thank you. Thank you

I’m changing my prediction to scenario three biden president. Oh, yeah. Yeah. Let’s do that as we wrap besties

besties

I’m still sticking with biden. I’m still sticking with biden

Okay, trump trump just tweeted that I will be making a statement tonight a big win. So we we’re either in scenarios

well, I mean

It’s two three and two three and four are all still on the table

Just for I don’t know if the viewers remember scenario one was a biden landslide. That’s clearly not off the table two

Was um was basically, um

what was

Was um trump pulling a big upset that’s still on the table i’d say probably

49 percent chance right now 40 45 percent chance

uh, then you’ve kind of got the scenario three was the soft landing where biden wins the presidency, but the republicans take

the uh the senate

And I think it’s probably like the 51 and then scenario four was the shit show that was a totally inconclusive outcome

And here we are here we are. So, I mean the reality is I think this thing

I mean, I think it’s probably at the end of the day

5149 in favor of biden right now, but we probably have at least three more days and maybe a bunch of court cases

Yeah, this could this could be really bad. I mean, we may not know who the winner is till

December and this may require another supreme court case

I think we’ll know within a week who won

But it’s going to be a it’s going to be a white knuckle kind of week. We um, did you know?

I think we’re going to know tomorrow

I don’t think we’re gonna know tomorrow. I’m with john. I I I guess you know, I guess based on the electoral map

I’d say it’s 5149 in favor of biden at this moment. Okay, so sax wants biden to win

Friedberg where are you at the end of this shit show?

I was doing this 2020. I was looking at which island in hawaii. I want to go to

I’m looking at austin and then just to uh, look at our final

The dots are getting a little better for trump, I wonder

Who the hell knows no, uh, this has been an incredible evening. I just feel better about the market reaction

I feel like you know

Those of us who operate businesses and try and build businesses and you know have employees and all this stuff

I mean i’m disappointed in san francisco. It’s a fucking shit show of the city

But uh, I feel good about the fact that markets are taking this well

and it you know means businesses will continue to operate and find funding and

Shout out billy in hawaii. Muthi berg is muthi. What’s your pick and then j. Cal and then we’re we’re gonna bounce

Yeah, I have to go with the math. I think trump uh dollar 60 is pretty significant. So

I have to pick that direction and i’m going by all right, everybody

This has been a special edition of the love you besties

Michael besties. Thank you. Thank you for having me. I enjoyed it. Thank you. Later guys

The poker table soon. Yeah, hopefully soon. Yes. Bye. Bye