All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg - E76.5: Food shortage, China's grand plan, inflation, French election plus an All-In Summit preview

🎁Amazon Prime 📖Kindle Unlimited 🎧Audible Plus 🎵Amazon Music Unlimited 🌿iHerb 💰Binance

All right, what? Oh, I’m doing this again. All right, listen,

it’s a two parter you read you listen to the first part. Now

this is the second part, Episode 76.5. If you will, this

is our first ever two parter part two of our two parter. You

already listened to part one of Episode 76. That’s Ilan and

Twitter. Lots of details there. And now we’re going to cover

some more topics including the global food crisis, China’s

plan to stockpile a bunch of food geopolitics while around

the horn, French election, Germany, etc. And then we’ll go

into details about a little bit of the drama and details,

pageant tea parties, poker, all the good stuff of the all in

summit. Coming soon. Okay, enjoy the show. I’ll see you on

the rain man David. There’s still a war raging, but I

wanted to get an update from Friedberg on the food crisis,

which he predicted very early for a lot further. fertilizer

prices are still climbing like crazy. There’s been some food

riding in China, which I think is a separate issue. He’ll

educate us in a minute Sri Lanka. So what is your theory

of what we’re going to do from here, Friedberg, because I think

we’re all waiting for this shoe to drop. And I think you

predicted this is something that we would experience into the

fall and into next year. So when are we going to actually

see these food riots occurring? And then it’s China’s food

rights have anything to do with this? Or does that have to do

with they? Yeah, I think I would put the Chinese food riots as

kind of a separate localized supply chain problem related to

the lockdowns. But we’re definitely, you know, I think I

mentioned last week, the USDA planting report showing in the

US how acreage is being reduced on corn. And, and we’re seeing

this around the world where acres are coming out of

production, or less fertilizers being used, which means less

foods being made. So everything that we predicted, I mean, this

is a slow train, a Titanic into the iceberg that we’re watching

right now. And it’s going to continue for nine to 18 months.

So, you know, one of the questions that people are now

asking, which I said, you know, would become a really critical

next step in this crisis, is how are we going to bridge the gap

in calories? Where’s the food going to come from? And how are

we going to feed nations that are almost entirely dependent on

imports that are running out of food, or out of food. So I’ve

mentioned this in the past, the whole world runs on a 90 day food

supply, which means roughly 25% of the world’s calories are in

storage right now. But that’s not the case, uniformly. So some

countries like Tunisia and Somalia, Ethiopia, have close to

zero calories in storage. Some countries, like the United

States are roughly, you know, 30 40% of our, you know, annual

consumed calories are sitting in storage. China is a complete

outlier. For years, China has been stockpiling food. And at

this point, China has 150% of their annual consumption of food

in storage. So they have supplies that if all food

production and import stopped in China, they would be able to

feed their population for one and a half years. That’s an

incredible supply of food. So if you look around the world to

places like Sri Lanka and places like Somalia that are

struggling to figure out how are we going to bridge this gap

on calories that’s about to hit us Egypt’s about four months of

food, by the way, and Egypt is dwindling, they cannot get the

food out of the Black Sea. So China is going to be one of the

very few potential solutions for bridging the calorie gap over

the next year. And I have a strong prediction and a strong

belief that because of that, China will use it to maximal

leverage. And we will see over the next year, an incredible

amount of leverage and power being accumulated by China,

because of transactions that they’re going to start to enter

into to bridge the calorie gap around the world. So in the horn

of Africa, for example, there has been this continuous

presence of China, trying to give themselves a military base

trying to take some influence over local media. And there’s

been this kind of push and pull with, you know, certain

populations around whether or not we should kind of embrace

China locally. And I think that, for example, the the food

crisis that we’re seeing emerge in Ethiopia, Somalia, Eritrea,

Djibouti, is going to be resolved by China. And China is

going to end up gaining influence, gaining military

presence, and establishing a more permanent foothold in the

horn of Africa, because of the position that they’re in of

strength with all these calories, and the and the need

in these regions. That’s not just their Sri Lanka, other

parts of Southeast Asia, even Western Africa, Northern Africa,

China is going to show up. And they’re the only country that

can show up the UN, the World Food Program, they’re gonna do

everything they can to shuffle calories around, change food

supplies. But I do think that one of the things that everyone’s

going to be watching, and it’s it’s a slow roll, this isn’t

going to be some one big deal, and everyone wakes up over the

next year, while the US is, you know, trying to do everything we

can to maximally impose sanctions on Russia, China is

slowly turning the crank around the world on the influence that

they are going to gain, because of this food crisis, and the

absolute, you know, surplus that they have locally and the

ability to export that surplus to support needs around the

world, and it’s not going to be free, it’s not going to be

cheap. So I thought it was worth highlighting what we’re seeing.

And I shared a couple of articles with you guys. And with

Nick articles that no one is paying attention to. And this

isn’t some conspiratorial, oh, my God, there’s some dangerous

thing happening. I’m just pointing out one of the things

that’s happening as we talk about, you know, the great

change in power, the shift in power globally, that’s

happening. It is happening in a very significant way this year,

given the surplus that China has the dearth that many countries

have, and the inability for the US to really adequately respond

to the food crisis that’s emerging. And so I thought it

was worth bringing to everyone’s attention. There’s a lot of

little articles that support this point. I shared them with

you guys, you guys can put them in the show notes and, and put

them up on YouTube and whatever. But I think this is going to

become a macro trend that we’re going to wake up to in six to

nine months and be like, Whoa, what the heck happened? You

know, how did China get so much leverage around the world? And

it’s starting now.

That’s what happens with every war. You know, we all we go in

hot, you know, we, you know, rah, rah, we’re all gung ho. And

then at some point in time, we’re like, wait a second, why

do we do that? You know? And, you know, and look, there’s no

shortage of, of neocons and liberal interventionists are all

saying this war is wonderful for us, because it’s reunited the

American Alliance and the Western Alliance. And that this

has been this war is a good thing for us. Let’s keep it

going. Let’s bleed Russia. Let’s topple Putin. Let’s stabilize

the regime. They’re in favor of protracted conflict that I’ve

been, you know, warning against. And what Freeberg is saying is

the longer this conflict goes on, the more of these disastrous

scenarios are going to materialize.

What do you what is your take on how crippled Putin is right

now, David, just objectively, and again, you’re not a fan of


You listen, yeah, look, I don’t have any, I just lost the ship.

Like, I mean, this does not look good for him. It feels like

he can’t and he’s losing all his tanks. I mean, this seems like

a I don’t know anything you don’t know, in terms of, you

know, I’m just a consumer of information. But I tend to think

that we are overly optimistic in the West. And look, the war has

clearly gone very bad for Putin. But this idea that everything

that magically, we’re going to get regime change in Moscow,

we’re going to get Gorbachev 2.0. That that is that is an

objective worth protracting this war for, I tend to think it’s

going to be a mistake. I mean, that that’s now doesn’t mean I

support Russia’s invasion. I’ve said it’s illegal. It’s a crime.

It’s a violation of international law to

humanitarian disaster. But what I’ve supported is a is a

negotiated peace, a settlement that we try to get as quickly as

possible. That is clearly not the administration’s position on

this. They want to keep this thing going. And you know, this

idea that that a long war is good for America’s alliances. I

would disagree with that, because you’re already seeing all over

the world now people are starting to object to American

policy. You saw it with India. And India is the world’s largest

democracy, they should be on our side, they definitely should not

be on China’s side, because they have a huge, they’re not late

intention. But China and India are both de facto on Russia’s

side on this. Africa and large parts of Latin America would

like to have oil. And they would like to maintain their they would

like to maintain their relationship with Russia. And

they did not support the denunciation of Russia, they

would like to see this conflict and large parts of Africa would

like to see it and Latin America, basically all the

victims, if there’s a famine in the world in six months, like

freeberg is saying, they are all very worried about this. All of

them have expressed concern with the American policy, which seems

to be retract this war.

Okay, and freeberg, you have to go do your talk at Berkeley.

Congratulations. And we’ll see you next time. Thanks for the

contribution. Chamath, any thoughts on the CPI, we set a

record that seemed to have gotten lost in the haze of

Twitter. I learned something really interesting that I just

wanted to share with you guys. So there was a big CPI print,

obviously, but there was a report, probably not many people

read it. But it was about home equity. And the takeaway was

that since 2020, Americans have taken to 430, I think the exact

number is 427 $427 billion of home equity out of their homes

and effectively spent it. So what what it started to make me

think about was if you look at all of that home equity, plus

the stimmy checks, plus the unemployment insurance checks

that starts to explain, I think why the labor markets are so

tight, and why people haven’t gone back to work, there is no

motivation, because there’s just so much money sloshing around

for them to basically not have to be forced to do any of this

stuff that they don’t want to anymore. And I think the the

thing to keep in mind is like, that’s also what’s gone into the

stock market. It’s also what’s driven up the price of used

cars, new cars, all of this stuff. I just think that kind of

like starts to paint a picture of CPI that’s really important,

which is that it’s probably a little bit more transitory than

we may actually think because when you exhaust all of that

extra money that dry powder, there’s not as much inflation

to be had. And I think most people are now forecasting that

inflation is really going to taper off. And the big warning

sign that everybody is sort of, you know, marching towards is,

you know, too many excessive rate hikes between now and the

end of the year could actually push us into a real recession.

And we were talking about that before, but the probability is

now sort of like one in three. Whereas before, I think, you

know, David and I sounded a little bit crazy when we were

talking about it. So I just wanted to put that out there

as something I learned this week that I thought was really

important, worth the labor participation rate peaked at

67 68%. But half a trillion dollars. I mean, half a trillion

dollars of actual spending in the economy, that’s a ton of

money to be absorbed, right? If people have a couple 100 grand

in their bank account who own homes or whatever, there’s no

need to go back to a job. And if you don’t feel safe, because

you maybe still have some COVID fears, you don’t want to

commute, or you’re just out of the rhythm for two years. And

you’re like, I’m kind of enjoying skiing, or whatever

you’re doing, whatever your jam is, maybe there’s no, there’s no

rush to get back, you’ll wait until you you’ll wait until you

exhaust all of that money. This is a and then we’re not, as we

talked about, we’re not letting people into the country at the

same time. So you still have 10 million job openings. That

flips, that would be economic activity, that would be helpful

in fighting fighting against a recession, correct?

I mean, I think that that we’re probably going to have a quarter

or two contraction, it’s probably going to happen at sort

of at the late end of this year, beginning of next year, just the

real question is how, how high are rates between now and then.

And again, I think the setup isn’t very good, which is that

the investors in the stock market are playing chicken with

the Fed. And, you know, they’re just at the beginning of a rate

cycle, and they haven’t been able to impact any real forms

of liquidity in the equity market. And so I think they’re

holding, they’re gonna, they’re going to attack that, and the

only blunt force instrument they have is rates. And so, you

know, you could see rates at three, three and a half percent,

and that’s going to impact a lot of stuff. And the problem is

that, you know, it’s going to be after the economy has slowed

down, because it’s going to be after a lot of these, you know,

fake savings, if you will, have been depleted.

Yeah, well, we’re seeing some pressure come off as well, the

car shortage is kind of ending. And wages have raised so that it

seems like they’re in this, you know, confluence of events,

certain things are starting to work themselves out. Are you

Hey, can I tell you something? I was I was in Washington this

week, the number of people that listen to our pod, it is


It’s interesting. Yeah. I mean, incredible Washington care

about our views on politics.

It’s incredible. The number of feedback to Yeah, it’s really,

really, really special. We’ve we’ve stumbled into something

pretty cool. And the fact that it’s like, must, it’s, it’s, it’s

must listening. It’s must listen.

That’s like a Sunday weekly show, you just get a different

perspective from the tech sector and capital allocators that

maybe you don’t get on us, you know, meet the press or

something. Yeah.

But just to follow up on that inflation point, the economic

point, Jason, if I can, so please.

So look, the main reason inflation is going to go down in

the second half of this year is because inflation is measured on

a year over year basis. And you remember about a year ago is

when inflation started, but you know, around this time last

year, inflation was only two and a half percent, then it

reached 5% by the summer, then by the end of the year was

almost 8%. So as we sort of lap last year’s inflation rate, we

come up against, you know, you’re copying against a 7.8%

number last year. So I don’t think inflation’s going to get

any better. We’re probably looking at roughly a 12%, you

know, official two year inflation numbers. So in other

words, since Biden took over as president, you’re looking at

probably 12 to 13% of total inflation as measured by CPI.

And that is why even though the headline number will come down

later this year, I don’t think the American people are going

to feel any better about the situation. You can almost

predict that Jen Psaki or whoever replaces her at the

podium at the White House briefing room, they’re going to

be touting these lower inflation numbers at the end of the year.

But it doesn’t mean price levels will have decreased prices will

still be very high. When people go to the grocery store, they

buy meat or bread or what have you, it’s going to be very

expensive. And I don’t think people are gonna be feeling

better off. And there’s going to be a lot of negativity going

into the November election for this administration.

And also, I think it’s going to impact consumption. I mean, if

you’re going to a gas station, and you I mean, I drove the

minivan to LA. And it’s the only electric, it’s only non

electric car we have, we happen to drive it because we had a

number of people that was bigger than the axe. And it was

like shocking to buy $7 gasoline. And obviously, I can

withstand, you know, filling up, but I could see people saying,

you know what, maybe I’m not going to make that incremental

trip, or, you know, you start looking at some of the prices,

you know, for taking a trip or flights, I don’t know if you’ve

looked at flights or hotels, like things are starting to

creep up that it’s like super noticeable. And that’s got to

affect consumption. And then that would be what would be part

of those negative two quarters, right? Chamath. I mean, the role

of people stopping consuming and just saying, you know what,

it’s too expensive right now. Just stay at home and watch

Netflix. Fuck it. You know, I’ll cook pasta tonight.

You see that happening already.

Yeah, people are starting to balance the balance sheet, just

looking at the balance sheet and say, you know what, what’s

the way I can, you know, cut some expensive items off the,

you know, I’ll ride a bike, they’re going to take less

travel, because, you know, the cost of airline tickets have

gone up, because the cost of the jet fuel has gone up at all.

It all ripples through the economy. But I think the thing

is that when when the Fed gets involved, though, they get

involved in a, you know, in a brute force way,

let me make a prediction right now, if we’re, we’re definitely

headed into an economic slowdown, I don’t know if it

will meet the technical definition of recession, but

very negative course of growth. Yes, exactly. So, you know,

very high chance, I think of recession, like Jamal said,

towards the end of the year, if this war is still going on,

and we get into recession, look out below, I think this

president will be in Jimmy Carter territory, he began the

year at 38%. That was in reasonably good conditions of

peacetime. If you know, and I tweeted at the beginning of the

year in January, I said that, you know, this is, you know,

you’re at 38%. That’s with peace and prosperity, look out

below, if we get recession and war, that’s what it’s looking

like right now. So, you know, I think this is things are

looking pretty, pretty dire, which is why I keep saying it,

you know, the policy, this administration should be to try

and find a settlement to the situation in Ukraine to this

war. I know that we didn’t start it, Putin started it,

let’s be clear. But if there’s an off ramp here, we should be

seizing it because we got real problems back home in America,

and the administration should be focused on our economy and

our problems.

Europe is going to be the canary in the coal mine on all

of this, because I think they feel this pretty severely. And

I think there’s a lot of exhaustion amongst European

governments and leaders when you start to listen to this

rhetoric to kind of, you know, find a way to end what’s going

on over there, because the they’re going to see a pretty

meaningful recession, I think.

Yeah, absolutely.

Much more, much more so than we will.

Yeah. And if you look, if you look right now, what’s happening

in France, Marine Le Pen is surging.


Against Macron. I don’t know if she’s going to pull off the

upset, but one of the major pillars, well, actually, here’s

what she’s running on. She is saying that she has been focused

on inflation and cost of living. And she says Macron has been

distracted by being America’s basically lapdog puppet,

whatever, on Ukraine. So she’s saying we need to focus on the

French economy. And she’s also saying that we as France should

set our own follower policy and not be so differential to the

US. She says that this protracted war in Ukraine, and

all this hot rhetoric coming out of the Biden administration

about war crimes, and destabilizing Putin and toppling

him and putting him on trial at the Hague, that is not in French

interests. That’s what the Americans want to do. But it’s

not what we should be wanting to do. We need to end this war.

And I’m not ready to say she’s going to pull off the upset yet.

But she is clearly articulating that message because she is

finding purchase with the French electorate based on that

message. And you’re going to hear that if this war continues

for three months and six months, and Europe goes into

recession, you’re going to start hearing politicians all over the

European continent saying the same thing and questioning

American leadership. And why are they are dragging this thing

out? The thing that’s the scariest thing about the French

election. And I’m not sure how many Americans paid attention to

it. But just to maybe summarize in a very quick nutshell, you

actually had this really interesting dynamic of three

candidates. One was what would be considered far left. Jean

Luc Melenchon, one far right Marine Le Pen, and then one that

was very, very centrist Emmanuel Macron. And what’s crazy is

both of these two were, you know, 22 plus percent of all of

the votes. It was just that Le Pen and Macron were one and two.

And so they go into a runoff election. And, you know,

Melenchon was very clear, he was like, under no circumstance,

should any of my supporters vote for Le Pen. But it just

shows you what’s happening, which is like France, which is,

you know, sort of coming undone under this populist fight is

probably a canary in the coal mine for how this stuff could

play out in other places. And it’s kind of scary.

It’d be interesting to see what happens in Germany as well, as

they look at this enabling of

code, they were able to hold the line, they you know, they

still have a center right government. But you know, in

Austria for a while, that wasn’t the case in Hungary, it’s not

really the case. So there’s a lot of countries, at least in

the eastern block of Europe, where you’ve you’ve seen a tip

in one direction or the other. It’s not unreasonable to think

of that in France, it could tip in one direction or the other.

Fortunately, in the UK, or unfortunately, however, you look

at it, it’s still really a two party system, for the most part,

I think. So I don’t know, we’re in a really precarious moment in

world history, I think. Yeah. By the way, I want to talk about

one thing that at the end of last year, I talked about just a

very random thing about, you know, visa and MasterCard and

how you could short them. Or, you know, like, basically, like

the payment networks, we’re going to start to get, you know,

dismantled this year. It’s really interesting to see, I

don’t know if you guys have been really paying attention to all

the activity that’s been happening in payments over like

the last literally 90 days, I think has been really

incredible up into, you know, just today, you know, visa and

MasterCard, I think are doing the single dumbest thing they

could do by being a duopoly, which is raising prices,

especially into an inflationary moment, which just lacks

complete knowledge and sensitivity of the moment. So

dampen economic activity, but also creates the incentives for

disruption. Sure, right, because then the gap between

you and your next clearest competitor becomes more obvious.

And again, in capitalism, you compete away these advantages.

And I just think that the setup is becoming more and more

obvious for the shift in payments. I just think it’s

quite interesting. So Dick Durbin, actually, today,

basically, is going to create a big, you know, hubbub in the

Senate around these increasing merchant fees, which will

eventually spill over to consumers. There’s some talk

that, you know, I, what is it called? Zellie? Is that how you

pronounce it? Zellie, the the inner bank payment system,

people are talking about them converting that to becoming a

more substantive payment system. And then this week, I

was able to see a little bit under the hood of, you know,

Solana pay. And that’s really exciting. So it’s all coming, I

think, like, it’s like a swarm of activity to dismantle these

payments businesses. I just wanted to just give the 90 day

update from our from our discussion in January. All

right, everybody, we will see you May 15 16th and 17th in

Miami for the first all in summit now sold out. No more

tickets available. There’s a waitlist, but we’re not going

to be able to get to anybody on it. Sorry, you can sign up and

we’ll make sure you know about next year. If there is a next

year, this might be a one and done kind of situation. Three

amazing parties Sunday night is our poker tournament for

charity, the top, it’s gonna be a sit and go format. If you win

your sit and go, you go into a sit and go, bake off, and then

you get to sit at the final table with the four besties. The

winners are going to get to make a donation to the charity of

their choice, paid for by the besties. And Sunday night’s

party will be the goodfellas party Monday is going to be the

Havana white party, bring your linen sacks. I know you got a

whole closet full down there. And then Tuesday nights are

Miami vice party. Here are the mock ups.

This is the first time I’m seeing a little reveal.

There’s a lot of work the copy I didn’t write. We’re workshopping

it. It’s just we got a little what do they call that like a

mood board. It’s a little bit of a mood board. Here’s your

wet your beaks party for Sunday night. It’s going to be a

goodfellas theme. Should be a lot of fun. It looks like

goodfellas. It looks like goodfellas. We’re going to keep

working on it. Wet your beaks probably not gonna be the name

of your party. But that’s Sunday night. And then next up is our

Havana white party. Despite all the shit you take. You do such

a good job with this shit. I gotta say. Thank you. And then

we’re gonna have our uh social club. I apologize but I think

this is complete dog shit this one. Okay. The first one. It’s

supposed to be Buena Vista Social Club. You’re just a

heathen. You never saw that. The first one is so good. This

is horrendous. Well, I don’t even know what is this picture

of this? It’s a it’s a theme on the Buena Vista Social Club.

It’s a it’s not the right image but we’re workshopping it like

I said but. Yeah. That’s gonna be a Havana white party.

Everybody’s gonna wear linens on Monday night and it’s. That’s

gonna be at a beautiful space. Name in that. Like I said, this

is just a designer coming up with ideas and then, of course,

we’re gonna have our Miami Vice. We’re gonna rent a couple

of um. Oh, that I like. Miami Ventures. And so, there we are.

And so, that should be our at 420 Bitcoin Street. Your best

80s dress for Miami Ventures. So, it’s gonna be three parties.

That is uh that’s hot. I think it’s gonna be uh three great

parties. You have to but everybody’s gonna have to get

three great outfits. So, linens are easy Monday night. J J Cal,

your your thighs look really big in this photo. I haven’t.

Well, this is fat J Cal. This is not 167 J Cal. This is 198

J Cal. On your left leg, you can’t tell where your bottom

part of the leg stops where you’re. It’s cuz I’m sitting in

a stool in that picture they got but yeah. But it’s like you

have no knee. It’s just like one big shank like. Yeah. Well,

you know what? It’s when you’re fat and you got fat suits, you

know, everything’s uh listen, I’m looking at pictures of

myself. Why didn’t you guys fat shame me more? That’s the

question I have. You guys should have been just on me.

You really look incredible and then yesterday when I saw you,

I was like, holy **** This guy looks really fantastic. Look,

there’s no knee there. It’s just no knee. It’s like shank.

It’s like big shank. You know what? When you’re a fat guy,

you get fat suits. You just try to, you know, and now, I’m

having to rebuy. Look at that fat face. Oh, what’s up with

that hair? Zoom out. Oh my god. Zoom out. Zoom out. Look

terrible. Flat hair. Now, looking nice. No, you look

good. I look fabulous. Let’s let’s go with this one. Let’s

go with this. You look great. Yeah. We’re gonna redo mine. I

want all the photos done of Vin Jay Cow for the inspiration.

Don’t, no double chin. What are you doing? You work for me.

Yeah, we need, we need. You’re killing me. Where’s my neck?

Now, I got a neck again. I found my neck, everybody. There

you have it, folks. So, I’m sorry if you did not get into

the All in Summit but we’ve got a great lineup of speakers and

events planned. No press because well, we have the same

distribution but we will, the press will be able to see all

the talks. So, all the talks will come out post event on the

all in feed. So, for the 10 days after the all in feed,

you’re gonna get a show every day. And who are our confirmed

speakers at this point? Oh my lord, so many good ones. Hold

on. Let me pull it up here. Keith Raboy, Palmer Lucky is

coming, huh? Oh, good. So, that’s confirmed. That’s

awesome. Yeah, we got that confirmed. He’s a big fan of

Saxy Poo. The new website’s up by the way and it looks

beautiful. Oh, wow. Look at this. So, we have Ryan Peterson,

Nate Silver, Brad Gerstner, Claire Vickle who is amazing,

Mar Hershon, Palmer Lucky, Keith Raboy, Joe Lonsdale. Oh,

you got Antonio to want to speak. Tip or Antonio is now

coming out of a shell. Antonio Garcia Martinez. Nice. I mean,

these are Adina. You should get we should get some foreign

policy folks too. I mean, well, if you guys wanted to do any

**** work, you could help me out here. I thought this was

just a grift you were doing. I didn’t know it was serious. Now,

I’m now I may have to help. Yeah, no, you’re gonna be proud

of this. Well, here’s the thing that I’m gonna be most proud of

is the format. I have come up with a new concept of a format.

I came up with a theme question that people can choose to

answer or not but the problem I want to solve and it could be

the problem I most wanna solve. It could be the problem I wanna

see solve the problem I’m thinking about. People will go

up in most cases and give a ten to 20-minute, call it a Ted

style talk, a solo dolo talk where they kinda talk about

what they’re working on in their lives then they come and sit in

a chair with two besties on either side and then the four

of us engage them in a conversation. While we’re

talking, we’re gonna have maybe five slides that producers will

put together of data points, etc. So, we all get educated.

We pull up the slide and then there’ll be, you know, 600

people in the auditorium, 100 people in the simulcast room.

We will take one question from the audience or two questions

if we have time with each segment and so you’re gonna get

a lot of bestie action but stimulated by bestie guestie

positions um and I think this is really what folks want. Now,

if somebody doesn’t want to give one, let’s say Palmer just

wants to talk. Well, we’ll just talk with Palmer um and so

there’s gonna be an option. I told people you could your

position paper, your position statement could be five minutes,

it could be twenty. So, I wanna do something on uh natural

resource scarcity and uh national security. So, uh Jim

Latinsky, the CEO of MP Materials. Okay, you just, all

you gotta do is email me the person’s email address or

introduce me and we’ll set it up. So, we’ll we’ll do

something on like the supply chain of like rare earths and

lithium. Yeah. And so and then here’s my other idea. So, I I

told everybody. So, that the problem I’d like to solve there

is energy independence for America. Perfect. So, then do I

still need to email you now? Just email me but here’s the

thing we’re doing. I told everybody. I just I just told

you the. Yeah, we have it. Nick will take a note. Yeah. Um to

remind you. Um to get the email address. Here’s what’s gonna

happen. Okay, so you don’t need me to email you. Uh I mean, we

don’t wanna guess the email if you have it and you know them.

I mean, I know you wanna do the least amount of work but I need

to get a producer’s fee here. I don’t know. You guys gotta

outvote Freeberg. Putting that aside. I’m fine. I’m fine with

that too. Thank you. Then three because that’s how all in media

is working now. It’s just gonna be votes. Well, why don’t you

sign the LLC agreement? Did anybody sign it yet? I was

gonna review it to see what poison pill Freeberg put in

there. Can somebody? I’m not signing this **** till I have

two lawyers look it over. Freeberg’s got a poison pill in

there. I don’t know about you guys but I just signed any

random docu sign that I just assumed. You know, I wanna get

to speak. You don’t wanna get to speak at the conference. In

the last 30 days. Yeah. So, I’d like to get, I’d like to get

Professor John Mearsheimer to speak. He’s a. Oh, that’d be

great. Yeah, he’s a professor at the University of Chicago.

He’s been there 40 years. He’s the leading, he’s a leading

theorist, you could say, of the school of thought called

realism. Oh, yeah. Uh and and foreign policy and he has a

track record of being right about all of America’s foreign

policy. Oh, wait. This is the guy you shared the video with,

right? Yeah. So. He’s the guy who talked about the duopoly.

What do they call that? The mono, dual, tri. World order.

Nucleosis. Multipolar. Unipolar. Yeah, I mean, he has a

critique. He has a critique of liberal interventionism which

has been the dominant. Fantastic. Foreign policy since

the end of the Cold War. It’s what got us into Iraq,

Afghanistan, Syria, Libya. He predicted all those things be

fiascos. He also predicted that our policy of constructive

engagement towards China would ultimately backfire and be a

disaster and he has a very contrarian critique right now

of our policy in Ukraine that’s gone viral. Yes. On Twitter and

it’s gotten like 10 million plus views. He’d be an

incredible person to to come speak. Well, here’s what’s

happened while we invite people, you know, we we invite

some people. They don’t know the show. We knew other people

and they’re like, oh my god, I love the show. I’m there. What

what’s gonna be interesting is the next 30 days, we’re gonna

talk to each person about what they what topic they really

wanna, you know, double click on and then we’re gonna pair

people. So, you might have Keith Reboy and Antonio, you

know, you might have Tim Urban and Joe Lonsdale or whatever

and so hopefully we can find a little dynamic. Maybe people

don’t agree. Maybe they have, you know, opposite positions

and then we’re going to then have this great Socratic

dialogue with everybody and I think it’s gonna be a very fast

paced type thing and then hopefully the speakers sit in

the VIP area and then I’m gonna have a runner there with a

microphone or I might do it myself. So, you know, I might

have Keith Reboy on in the morning. In the afternoon, he

might wanna chime in on Joe Lonsdale’s talk. I run up to

him with a microphone, etcetera. So, we got probably,

we’re gonna do two hours in the morning, three hours in the

afternoon. So, it’s 10 to 12 so you can sleep in or come for

coffee. If we stay late playing poker every night, it’s gonna be

a gentle wake up. Twelve to two is a nice lunch, healthy. Three

to five, nice, I’m sorry, two to five, three hours of nice

content. Then you get a little break. You go to the parties. At

the end of the parties, you never know a poker table or two

might be pulled out and we play a little cash game. Who knows?

Anything’s possible. So, poker could be all three nights. I

don’t know. You know, this depends on the degeneracy level

but I think it’s gonna be a fun time. I’m just asking nobody go

ham on Sunday or Monday night. Please. Tuesday night, you wanna

have a little extracurricular. You wanna go a little late,

Davey, Chamath, that’s fine but I want everybody in bed by

midnight, Sunday night, Monday night. No crazy. Alright, so

what are the dates this thing again?

Okay, it’s Sunday, Monday, Tuesday. Sunday, Monday. Of

what? Of what? May 15, 16, 17. Okay. Oh my god. Oh my god. What

a **** show. And you better **** fly some of these speakers out

the tour. It’s in a month. It is in a month. Yes, that’s why

I’m busting my **** on this. Okay, so uh Jake, I’m gonna

introduce you to Latinsky so we can uh slaughter. And if

anybody had uh we could use a couple more female speakers,

people of color. I’m really trying to keep it diverse and

have a lot of range of speakers. A lot of uh David

Stans said yes early. You got the Joe Lonsdale. You get Keith

Robois. They all like wanna support David’s team. I could

use a couple people maybe with the posing viewpoint. So, we’re

we’re trying to keep it a little bit wide. Uh Barry Weiss may

come. We’re trying to work on bars. Oh, that’s good. Yeah, we

should go. I can’t make it. I wanted to have Bari and Kara

Swisher. It doesn’t seem like that oil and vinegar is gonna

happen. Can we uh can we get Glenn Greenwald? But that’s

right, right, right. You’re getting, you’re getting further

and further to the right. What I’d like to have is somebody

with Barry. Matt Taibbi. That’s another kind of right guy. I

would like to have somebody on the left. Your definitions are

all off Jason. These definitions don’t mean anything

anymore. Okay, they’re independent critical thinkers.

So, they’re they’re they they originally came from the left.

They’re not like huge fans of unbridled capitalism but they’re

more on the populist side. If you want to send an invite to

anybody, Saks, I would appreciate it. Particularly

Peter Thiel who’s the you’re the one person who can deliver

it since you guys are besties. Bring us Peter Thiel. The guy

spoke at a goddamn. Alright, give me a give me a list. I’ll

invite Glenn. I’ll invite Taibbi. I’ll invite Peter. Oh

great. Now, we just lost half the audience. We’re gonna have

a protest outside. I I actually. These are the most

interesting people. Exactly. Peter Thiel’s the most

interesting. For sure. I like Mike Taibbi actually. I’ll give

you that. Here’s the problem. Here’s the problem. Here’s the

problem with getting the people on the other side is that the

people on the other side, again, it’s not right versus left

anymore. It’s sort of populist versus elitist and you already

know what all the elitists are gonna say and they’re too

afraid to be on stage with people on the other side. But I

mean, I think that you’re associated with Peter Thiel

where there’s a little bit charge and triggering for

certain people. That’s. Yeah, exactly. That’s why they don’t

they don’t believe in free speech. They don’t, I mean,

people are like, how could you be friends with David? I’m like,

because we love each other. We’re friends. Like, we’re

besties. And they’re like, well, but you disagree with

tactics. It’s it’s contamination by association.

But that’s basically, that’s I mean, David, that’s what they’re

trying to do to me right now. I’m getting the back channel.

How could you do this with David Sacks? And I’m like,

because he’s my best friend. That’s why our pod is popular

is we have four people who are friends who sometimes disagree

with each other. The reason you can’t create the show still

anywhere else. I’m not giving up my friendship with David.

The reason you can’t create the show anywhere else is because

those people think they get contaminated if they even have a

conversation with somebody on the other side of things. But

you don’t get that on your side. Correct. Because we believe in

free speech. Because we’re intellectually confident. We’re

intellectually confident. We don’t believe in shutting down

the debate. Right. We believe in free speech. The other side,

they’re authoritarian, because they can’t defend anything. They

just cancel people. They’ve lost the art of persuasion. I

think they’ve given up their position would be they’ve given

up trying to reach you. You just don’t get it. They’ve given

up trying to reach you. And I’m like, don’t give up. Put up a

fight. If you disagree with sexist, it’s not about reaching

me. It’s about reaching all of them. Yes. All the people out

there watching the debate. They don’t want to engage the debate

because they can’t win the debate because they don’t know

how to persuade. All they know how to do is cancel weekly. Look

what I did to you. All they know how to do is cancel people.

Yes. They’re so used to cancel people. I debate you every week,

Saxon. I own you half the time. Okay. Good. I think so.

January 6th. We’re going to release the January 6th tapes.

That’s all you got. Your little excursion on January 6th.

You’re like MSNBC. That’s all you got.

Love you, Eskies.

We should all just get a room and just have one big huge

orgy because they’re all just useless. It’s like sexual

tension that they just need to release somehow.

You’re a bee.