0:01

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And I’m Chuck Mendenhall and I’m Petey Carol and together, we are three pack.

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0:17

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On today’s episode, we got predictions predictions, provocations and premises about the future of streaming Tech and entertainment.

0:41

Last year.

It was a bloodbath for media of all Stripes.

Netflix was down the ad Market cratered, Disney fired, a CEO Bob and replace them with another CEO Bob Warner Brothers, Discovery was nightmarish and meanwhile, the domestic box office for films was down.

0:59

Two outside, a handful of huge hits, like top gun Maverick and Avatar.

The movie business is still struggling to get people to see original films, that aren’t just the latest installation of familiar.

Franchises and was understand is that, you know, you’d think.

Ok.

Well if people aren’t watching movies but they’re still you know, consuming a lot of Video Entertainment.

1:17

Then surely the streaming companies are doing well but basically all the streaming companies seem to have negative or minuscule earnings themselves.

I mean like it really has been difficult in an age of Rising interest rates to look across the landscape of need entertainment and say, aha.

1:34

They’re the ones that have really got their stuff together.

Everybody seems to be suffering at the same time but that said I feel like one mistake that media people like me can often make is that.

We mistake current trends for permanent Trends but just because X Is Happening.

1:55

Now, does not mean it’s going to go on forever and frankly.

Nothing goes on forever, almost everything changes, very frequently.

You think about something like Netflix soaring in 2021, got clobbered in 2022 and now might be poised to have a huge comeback in 2023.

2:12

So what I thought we might do today is run through several predictions and provocations that I’m hearing from my friends and sources in the media and entertainment space and throw all of them at a smart media analyst and see what he has to say.

2:29

About this prevailing wisdom.

So today that’s what we’re going to do and I’m very pleased to say that today’s guest is Rich Greenfield, the light shared media analyst he’s been on the show before he’s absolutely fantastic.

He really knows his stuff across TV film Tech and I think we’re going to have a lot of fun today, throwing stuff at him from Tick-Tock to future of the metaverse in VR to what Disney should do about ESPN I’m Derrick Thompson.

3:00

This is plain English.

3:23

Rich Green Field.

Welcome back to the show.

Thank you, good to have you back.

Okay, so rich, here’s what I have in store for you.

Today, I have ten sentences 10, call them predictions or provocations that I’m going to throw at you.

3:40

You and I want you to tell me whether you think that statement about the future of media and Tech is true or false.

And to be clear, if you think it’s false, I want you to tell me in very clear terms that it is false, false false because I don’t necessarily believe in all of these statements, they’re more just morsels that I’m getting from, you know, putting my ear to the ground or reading stuff and trying to figure out what the conventional wisdom of the meet entertainment space might be today.

4:09

So Let’s get ready.

I’m going to start with this.

We are nearing award season and there is an emerging theme in the media.

Right now that the prestige Blockbuster is nearly dead as a genre.

You have Prestige films and then you have Blockbusters, and they used to be the same, you used to have things like Forrest, Gump and Titanic, but now they have mostly decoupled.

4:32

And you look at the last few Award winners for Best Picture, Koda nomadland, the favorites for this year.

Like the Fable man isn’t are small box.

Sophos all of them.

So, true or false Rich.

The day has finally arrived.

When Prestige films are no longer viable in theaters because streaming has so forever, altered the face of Cinema.

4:56

I think it’s a true, but I think it was already true.

I mean, I think it’s been true for the last four or five years.

I mean, the pandemic, obviously, I think has accelerated a lot of this trend position, especially when you layer on streaming, on top of the pandemic, but I think consumer Behavior was already shifting away from movie theaters for all.

5:18

But quote-unquote, event films, and I think.

So when you think about sort of the Homes that you’re talking about, I mean, I you think about a few years ago, didn’t I forget the name of the movie from Fox Searchlight?

Was the fish film, right?

5:35

The shape of water.

I mean.

Okay, seven people saw that bill right?

Like yeah, you me and five other people.

Yeah.

Right.

Ru 3 Billboards over forget what state or city it was but like misery, right?

But we’ve had this, this has been an ongoing issue for years and it’s I think why Interest in award shows has waned as well.

5:58

I think it’s a direct result, right?

Like, people are not seeing the movies that are winning these Awards, maybe Top Gun changes that at the Oscars, I doubt it.

But I mean will say, but I think there’s been an ongoing issue where big movies that people actually see are not the ones winning Awards, which is funny.

6:18

Because when you think about what happens in TV, I think some of the biggest TV shows Lee do win Awards when you think about and these and even Golden Globes, I do think that there is sort of maybe not perfect correlation, but more of a correlation between those two.

6:34

That’s such a great Point.

Yeah.

If you are a Golden Globes awards viewer and you look at the movies that are most nominated and you compare to the television shows that are most nominated, you know, you’re comparing like, you know, banshees having to Sharon.

I think was the most nominated movie I saw it.

I saw it at home on a couch.

6:50

So I can see from the basement that I’m podcasting with you.

But then you compare it to Do you know, abot Elementary or hash the dragon these are really really popular shows that are being nominated on television for Golden Globes.

You’re right.

It’s an interesting division that we’re seeing between prestige in television versus film.

7:08

I mean squid game, you know, I mean, one of the actresses one, at the, at the Emmys this year, right?

And that was, by far the most watched series, over the course of the year.

And so again, I just think there’s a big disk and even the nominees are far more connected than What you see in the movie business, I have another true or false statement of throw it.

7:30

You we got to get through all ten of these true or false from living on a Disney.

Disney’s number one problem in the last few years is that it’s movies just haven’t been good enough.

Well I think that’s false.

The movies have been good.

7:46

I think the problem is they are less good than they were, right?

I think it is been sort of the The challenge for Disney is because they wanted to go into streaming, they ramped up dramatically, everything they were doing.

8:03

And so, instead of making one Marvel film a year, you’re making multiple Marvel films a year, not to mention on top of that, you’re making multiple Marvel TV series a year and you’re trying to do the same thing with lucasfilm’s.

And it just when you try to do more, it is really there’s a real challenge of trying do.

8:24

Quality and quantity at the same time at the same level and Disney’s been a company that has only historically focused on quality far more than quantity and now it’s trying to do both and I think it’s finding it very difficult and so I do think the quality is less than it’s been.

8:43

I think that’s showing in sort of the success and visibility think a lot of these Marvel and lucasfilm TV shows.

Haven’t really broken out the way, you know.

Look at the way something like, Wednesday, broke out on Netflix.

Like, we just haven’t seen.

8:59

I can’t remember a true breakout breakout hit on Disney plus really since Mandalorian.

Yeah.

It’s Mandalorian.

That’s what I was going to say.

If you didn’t mention it first.

If that’s what three years ago right?

I mean we’re talking 2019, right?

I think it’s true.

I mean I think is interesting that you said false to the premise that the movies have made good enough but you identified the core tension here which is that there is this difficult trade-off between quantity and quality.

9:24

If you were, as if you would ask me, how does Disney’s content even at its level of success?

Compared to every other Studio, you say still Disney’s doing better than everybody else, right?

It’s a relative decline.

How do you think to the extent that this is a problem.

This quantity quality trade-off.

9:39

Do the theory for how Bob Shaye.

Peck the new CEO.

Might have a different take on it than the outgoing CEO.

She’s me new CEO.

Bob Iger has a different take on it than the outgoing.

Bob Shaye, Peck.

I think it’s a great question and unfortunately we haven’t really seen what Iger wants to do.

9:57

I think it you know in many ways iger’s the one who set this in motion, right?

This is not you can’t pin this on Che pick shaping certainly put his foot to the pedal on uygur strategy but the strategy of ramping up within these categories was definitely an Iger creation and so I think we’re going to learn a lot over the course of the next couple of months, I don’t know.

10:21

Oh the answer to that II.

Do think that my guess is the right?

Answer is slowing down on these franchises, putting more TLC and then broadening out the content Beyond these franchises true or false.

10:36

Number three, Disney should sell ESPN in the next 12 months.

Balls, or I don’t think it’s going to happen because I think unfortunately Disney’s sort of needs the cash from ESPN.

10:52

And I think, you know, with the economy slowing recession, I do think that despite the headwinds ESPN is facing Disney, needs that cash.

I do think that it is an asset that probably deserves far less investment than it gets today.

11:08

Like, I don’t think it’s Disney doesn’t own the Content, the NFL does Major League Baseball, does NHL does?

I do think reducing investment?

You know, they recently exited Big Ten rights.

Like, I think how they reduce investment in ESPN is really important because it’s not the acid.

11:25

It used to be as I think most of your listeners, you know, increasingly cut the cord, and I’m guessing most people listening to this podcast are not viewers of linear television at 9:00 anymore.

The way they were five or ten years ago and that’s a big problem. so, for cable networks, like ESPN, It’s really important.

11:46

I think to recognize that with Disney’s trying to execute with the growth that streaming business is really, really hard in the high rate environment because no low rate environment where people were willing to price companies based on what they were going to be in five or ten years because interest rates are basically zero, okay.

12:01

You can say you can announce, we’re streaming company.

Now, streaming is the future.

Don’t look at the fact that we’re losing billions of dollars a year and streaming.

Don’t look at that.

Just pay attention to what, we might be in a decade, but now that rates are going up and up in the FED is still going to raise rates a few.

I think this year, even though we just today, I’m speaking to you on Thursday.

12:18

Saw a measure of core inflation come down and headline.

Inflation has come down, five in the last six months, you still are going to have higher rates.

Higher rates means that Disney needs some cash coming in order to keep investors believing in the company.

The next few months and where’s that cash coming from, it’s not coming from streaming, it’s not coming from the identity that they talked about over the last few years.

12:40

It’s coming from things, like ESPN, and all those affiliate fees and the advertising through.

Added to it.

So it seems to me like this company is in a it’s in a weird place, right?

Because it’s it relies in terms of earnings on an identity that seems to be going out the door while it’s building.

12:58

Another identity that doesn’t yet have earnings at all yet.

There is This is tough and I don’t think it’s just tough for Disney.

I think this, this is the problem facing all media companies right now, is that the Golden Goose?

13:17

That just kept printing money.

For these companies was cable networks in the box office and consumer behavior is moving very rapidly.

And I think these companies none of them.

This is again, I don’t like this is Disney specific.

I think all of them are trying to figure out what is the right strategy.

13:33

They jumped into streaming because it Like the thing to do as you said and now they’re going sort of oh shit.

What now we can’t get the scale.

This is not really what we you know we’re not really direct to Consumer.

Companies Shirin is hard.

13:49

You got to do more quality quantity, over quantity, quality like this is really, really hard and it’s not, you know, most of these companies.

I mean, think about it, they were B2B right, like Disney didn’t sell to you directly, you bought cable networks and broadcast networks from a cable company or a Satellite company.

14:07

You didn’t buy their movies.

Directly, you went to Walmart or you went to the movie theater, like, you didn’t buy from them.

Directly being an Adidas E-Business is just new for every single one of these companies and they’re learning what, you know what Netflix lives and breathes over, you know the last 12 plus years, it’s hard.

14:27

Number 4, we’re going to hold on to the sports theme for a bit number for True or False Google and Amazon will eventually regret spending so much money on live, sports deals.

He’s rubbing his Temple right now.

14:47

Regret, I think it’s false.

I think the reality is The.

Sports has been a part of every major.

When you think about anyone who has built a media businesses, almost all of them have Netflix is the outlier at the moment, but potentially everybody has used sports as an important part of their offering.

15:16

There’s nothing that attracts consumers, especially hyping, I think about the NFL.

So Google has done a YouTube TV deal.

Amazon’s done a Thursday night football deal.

Deal.

I mean the NFL is the world’s Pinnacle, the best content in the world.

And if you’re trying to attract advertisers attract consumers, what better way to sort of use a battering ram to break into this business.

15:38

Then with the world’s most valuable content in the NFL did the prices they pay, are they high, are they aggressive Shore?

But the difference is, you know, I think the reason I’ve sort of answer false to your question is that these companies?

This is not the be-all end-all, meaning they don’t the profit and loss.

15:56

Pause of their media businesses is not how these companies are are judged.

Like they have a very different lens, they’re focusing on, how do they capture more time spent with media in terms of their overall ecosystem and so they’re using a very different lands.

16:13

They don’t have the pl like, Disney back to your question directly.

Disney has to look at.

This is like, how much do we spend on each piece of content knowing that the revenue line of ESPN is in secular decline.

How much can we spend?

Spend on each piece of content.

16:29

There are Revenue, drivers of Google and Amazon that have nothing to do with their Video subscription video offerings at all.

And so I think, you know, it’s part of a much larger game, you know if your Amazon you’re looking at well what happens to us your retail sales, what happens?

16:48

Can it drive?

You know, the Amazon music business like all the different pieces of the equation.

It’s a very different calculus and I think from that standpoint since they Are using a different economic lens.

I think moving into sports is smart for both companies.

There’s an amazing statistic that I found.

17:04

So I should say in terms of the specific true or false.

I don’t I don’t have a strong opinion, I think it’s fascinating that YouTube and Amazon are spending so much money in the NFL right now.

I initially when I saw those numbers thought, maybe this is going to be read as an overspend and five ten years when we look back on the price tag but this is an incredible statistic from 2022.

17:25

If you look at the 100, Highest rated live shows of 2022, NFL games account, for 82 of the 100 highest rated live shows or linear TV show TV hours in 2022, college, football was another five other sports accounted for other seven or eight?

17:41

The only non-sports on this list with the Academy Awards, the Thanksgiving Day Parade and the election.

So basically, when it comes to linear TV, sports is the entire ballgame.

It is 90 plus percent of the Watch things on television.

17:58

And I also think that you’re right, you know, you look at the Amazon signups that came from the initial airings.

If there’s a Night Football, it seems meaningful and the lifetime value of those customers could theoretically justify the price tag.

It is just man, it is so damn High.

Okay, I’ve got ya, never five.

18:17

I’ve gotten a couple false has in a row.

Let’s see if we can turn this around true or false.

The worst is over for Netflix within a few months with the ad At AT&T are maybe some crack down on password sharing in the US and other International markets, the combination of this will drive Revenue growth Drive appreciation, appreciation of the stock value.

18:39

The worst is over for Netflix, true or false true care to elaborate sure.

You know, I think the two things are happening, one is we had a thing, Reed Hastings never assumed that the Pierce, you know, all the companies that we were just talking about earlier.

19:06

I don’t think he ever assume that everybody would launch streaming services and lose billions of dollars like peacock losing two and a half billion HBO Max losing you know two to three billion Paramount, losing two billion like the level of aggression with no business plan from so many companies, Disney, raising price and realizing they have to cut their streaming losses and think all of this ties together.

19:30

And that there was this massive surge in competition that now is going to slow down as everyone re trenches and realizes just how difficult this is.

Not to mention in a recessionary environment, economic headwinds, everyone is sort of realizing that it with their Core Business is in trouble.

19:49

They’ve got a sort of figure out ways to slow the losses of the shrooming businesses.

I think that’s a nice sort of inflection point where it was bad for Netflix and it’s going to start to ease up.

So I think that’s going to be really helpful over the course of the next 12 or 18 months and then on top of that I think look having a cheaper advertising plan, even if most consumers don’t want.

20:11

And I think having a lower price point is to be great for a marketing standpoint, especially as you crack down on password sharing and I think the service has become so must have and I think if you look at the content hot streak the company’s been on over the last Months when you start to crack down on passwords but you have all the content people want and as other start to pull back, it makes it even easier to justify setting up your own subscription or having somebody pay for you to have an incremental account.

20:39

I just think the revenue growth really accelerates pretty meaningfully at Netflix in 23, and 24, 2023 2024.

And so I do think the worst is behind them, and there’s a lot of opportunities as they sort of reassert, their, their leadership and streaming.

Number six, this is the year that virtual reality fully breaks into the mainstream true or false false.

21:06

I just think we’re still very early honestly, because I think, you know, look, is it, can it break into the mainstream and gaming for sure?

I think with Sony coming out with a new device, you’re going to see a new device.

I mean I think you’re going to see an a device from Apple.

21:22

I think you’re going to see added a new device for a meta.

All of Is going to make it, I think far more appealing for gamers.

Anyone who buys think about all your friends that have a PlayStation or an Xbox for those consumers?

This is going to be a big year, but I sort of take the way you phrase, the question, true mainstream meaning, not just people who are Avid Gamers, but sort of anybody, I think that’s a stretch.

21:48

I think it’s going to take more use cases and I don’t know what those are, but I think we’re still very early in this being something that is Compelling Beyond core Gamers.

I totally agree with you and yeah, you took the meaning of my statement.

Exactly correctly.

22:04

I still, you know, I think Mark Zuckerberg is a brilliant guy.

I am willing to Grant genius status to Mark Zuckerberg.

I don’t get what he’s doing like, I, I understand it from the standpoint of, he feels like he’s Boxed In by some of these Hardware makers.

22:21

Like apple, that own the iPhone and like Samsung that own their phones.

He feels like a rent.

Are on these platforms.

You can’t control the rules if these platforms right for themselves and it means that whenever Apple changes their privacy code, it can really really Dent his ability to do psychographic profiling and make advertising Revenue as efficiently.

22:40

And so he wants to build his own Hardware platform.

Okay, got it.

Holy crap.

Like virtual reality wrap around goggles, I just don’t see it as the next iPhone.

I see it as something like the younger brother of the next Xbox.

22:56

Box.

I see it as a fun tool for gamers, which are a big industry, but not the kind of mainstream that I’m referring to.

How, how do you see Meta strategy here any differently?

You’re really sophisticated you know reader of of corporate strategy especially in the media and Tech space is he is he nuts or does this make a kind of kooky sense?

23:23

Look.

Is there going to be forms of Blended reality experiences?

I don’t think it’s with headgear.

That looks like a medic West Pro.

Looks like today is it gets to the point of being eyewear or contacts and is there a future where mixed reality will be very interesting and and have lots of use cases?

23:47

I’m absolutely sure there will be a little less convinced on pure VR.

It kind of cuts off so much of the world around you outside of Gamers, but I do think that I think there’s something there.

I do question in terms of like, you know, think about Derek think about the companies that are have historically, been best at blending hardware and software you probably would say this little company called apple is the one that’s sort of most interesting, when we talk about this, and we haven’t seen how apples going to play here.

24:19

I mean, there’s been lots of speculation and talk of what’s coming this year.

But you know, I think I think what apple is going to do is going to make mark, look not crazy.

The question is, can can met uh, / Facebook, who is never been a hardware Builder?

24:35

Really?

Can they actually compete with the blend of hardware and software the way Apple Cannon?

And that’s to be determined by?

Don’t think Mark is crazy.

I just question whether they’re the ultimate winner here.

Hmm, there are seven True or false.

24:51

Tick-Tock will sell us operations to an american-based company in the next 12 months Balsam.

And I just don’t see our government focused enough on the or unified enough to sort of, you know, I think a lot of people are worried about Tick-Tock and what it does.

25:09

But I think, you know, actually getting the government to remove something that has become.

And you’re not really saying fully ban, you’re saying, hey, force it to be sold, but I still feel like It feels like the government is going to get comfortable enough with with Tick-Tock sort of Oracle data storage solution, that won’t necessitate a full sale of tick-tock to a US company.

25:33

I just don’t see enough Groundswell to make it happen.

I hear, you know?

Yeah, I see some Senators.

I see an FCC commissioner, but I don’t see the type of mass of Groundswell, nor a executive branch that has this sort of stated as a You know, must win or must execute on issue.

25:54

Yeah I’m really torn on this.

I think you’re probably right.

If I had to bet money, I would bet that Tick-Tock is not sold in the next 12 months.

In terms of their their American Consumer base at the same time.

One thing that I just consistently surprised by in u.s. politics is that it’s kind of like the potentially apocryphal Mark Twain.

26:13

Quote about bankruptcy.

It’s always slowly slowly and all at once.

Like, you think about something like like the Crazy about gas stoves versus electric stoves and maybe you’ve seen.

If you’ve logged online, Less 24-48 hours, everyone debating whether or not, the US government did some environmental to tell at Aryan by thinking about banning gas stoves.

26:32

This is everything.

I could see.

So many people talking about this all of a sudden, even though for months and months, I was vaguely aware of this debate about electric versus gas stoves happening in some environmental Corners.

This debate is happening.

26:48

It’s happening on Capitol Hill.

It’s happening.

Regulators, it’s happening among writers and it’s happening with in the tech World, there is clearly this ambient sense that it’s sort of crazy that we are allowing the Chinese Communist party, which is a geopolitical foe to be the owner of the, by far, most popular social media, app for young people.

27:09

And maybe for all people.

I haven’t seen the latest total demographic data and that ambient awareness could at any given moment based on any given speech or event.

A photo of something terrible happening in sinkiang, or China.

Concretize crystallize into a moment where there’s an Awakening in Washington where people say wait, it is kind of crazy that we aren’t forced in this to happen right now.

27:36

And the very last point is that Republicans and Democrats do not agree about a lot of things these days.

But one thing that the Biden White House and Republicans definitely agree on is that they are no friend of the Chinese Communist party.

And this could be the kind of issue that if it has that kind of, you know, crystallizing moment that I briefly outlined, it could be the sort of thing, the Republicans could work with the White House on.

27:59

So that’s my best case, or how it could happen.

I still think gun to my head.

You force me to bet 100 bucks on it.

I’d say Tick-Tock remains entirely in Chinese ownership in, you know, February of 2024 but that’s my best case.

I mean, think about how many u.s., how many people Regulators they and all of their kids and families are on This application every single day hours a day just hard.

28:24

It’s just hard to ban and I’m not sure Banning, it’s even the right solution.

I mean you wouldn’t even ban it.

I think it would be.

I think it would be that pressure from regulators and the federal government accelerates a sale rather than a federal ban coming down, followed by a few months of, holy shit, what are we going to do followed by a Sail to, for example, Oracle or whatever, my guess is that it’s the pressure or fear of a band that accelerates a sale rather than a ban actually happening.

28:59

But again, I’m spitting science fiction here, none of this has happened.

I’m skeptical.

You’re skeptical, we can move right along number 8.

True or false in the last last decade.

This training companies anthologized linear TV, for example, to show you which appeared on linear TV but then it went to Netflix and became huge.

29:21

This decade linear TV will anthologized the streamers.

That is to say that all of these linear, television channels, ABCs and lifetimes, the world, they’re going to start running shows, like the bear or the Dropout on linear TV even though.

29:39

He shows debuted on streaming.

So the relationship between streamers and linear TV will flip in this way.

True, or false, this flipping is in our near future true.

I think this is part of our predictions for this coming year.

I think this is going to be a big topic when you think about it.

29:56

If you go back to the early days of cable television, right?

Remember cable used to just be a rebroadcast product for broadcast, like, you would see Ally McBeal or the X-Files run on Fox, and then you’d see reruns run on.

On the FX Network or you would see Big Bang on CBS and then you would see Big Bang show up on TBS in rerun.

30:18

So like cable television was the second window for broadcast TV.

I think what you’re going to see now is broadcast itself is going to become the second window for streaming where you see stuff on, you know, peacock and then it runs on peacock and then it airs on the NBC Network, maybe a month later or a year later.

30:39

Guy, I think there is the number of people watching, linear TV is so small outside of sports that to actually create programming specifically.

For network television.

30:56

Honestly, it feels absurd like literally absurd.

And this is a good way to de-risk your programming because you know that it already succeeded and Hulu.

It’s already successful, take the cost down and Use it as essentially a marketing engine to drive people back to your streaming service.

31:13

Yep.

I should say full disclosure, I absolutely stole this directly from your 2023 predictions.

I thought it was really, really clever.

I had never heard of anyone talking about that but it seems.

It’s one of those things that you read it and you’re like, of course, that is so unbelievably obvious, you’re at there’s a couple of small examples of it.

31:30

Paramount’s tried it a little bit.

Like you’re seeing a few examples of where people are trying this, but I think this is going to become so I think they’re going to be forced to and they may not want To do this Derek, but I think they’re going to be forced to economically over the course of the year.

Number 9, true, or false.

31:46

One of the following companies will enter into an agreement to sell itself.

In the next 12 months Peloton, snap Netflix One of these companies will enter into an agreement to sell itself in the next 12 months Peloton, snap Netflix.

32:05

I’ll say true because I do think that peloton’s got to do something.

I think they’re being attacked from so many different angles.

I saw a Netflix launching, you know, Fitness classes like I think they’re just under attack from.

So many different angles that they could, they will need the sort of Leverage of a larger entity.

32:25

I don’t know who that would be.

B-but.

I think it just feels like it needs to be part of a larger company.

I don’t think the other two, I think it’s highly unlikely, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Peloton part of a larger company in the next 12 months.

What kind of company?

I don’t know, I mean, look, I’m a big believer that Subscription companies are best when they have lots of different subscriptions.

32:48

Like you think about what Amazon does, right?

Like two day shipping, but then you also get music and then you also get video and how many different things that are sort of different, you know?

You don’t want to subscription.

That’s all the same.

You want things that are different that touch different parts of your lives in different parts of your family.

33:04

And so anybody who’s in the subscription business could look at Peloton as an incremental way of reducing churn and and strengthening that that bundle.

I mean obviously Amazon and apple are obvious but I don’t know who else could take a look at it.

Yeah, Amazon seems really interesting to me if Amazon especially wants to enter what’s a tiptoe into the health space, a little bit, they briefly sort of Am I Wrong that they try to launch their own sort of health care product, or Healthcare disruptor thing.

33:33

What was that?

Like, it’s like several years ago, maybe they were, like, teaming up with JPMorgan.

I feel like Amazon wants to get into health care and it makes sense if If you want to essentially be something like 1% of the consumer economy.

It’s like what do consumers spend on, will they buy a lot of stuff?

33:49

That’s definitely true.

They watch a lot of stuff.

Okay, Amazon is all over consumer goods, they’re all over video and music.

Well, what else?

We spend our money on eighteen.

Twenty percent of the u.s. economy is Healthcare.

People spend a ton of money on everything.

They think about his health care, not just on their doctors, but also on things like gym memberships.

34:08

And it might be a really interesting way for them to get a little bit of That market that also happens to have a screen through, which you could sell them more stuff with in the Amazon Empire.

It it feels like it clicks in to Amazon pretty well.

34:24

Other than that, maybe I thought of Nike, if Nike wants to build out more of a virtual presence for its stuff, it might make sense for them to buy Peloton, but Amazon and Nike or the two words that I had written down.

Yeah.

All right.

Last one, this is actually a fill in the blank.

34:42

The biggest winner in media, and entertainment of 2023 will be, which company the biggest winner of 2023.

I mean, I feel like, you know, we sort of in some ways already answered that.

35:02

I mean, I do feel like this is sort of Netflix’s year, they’re replacing CBS during upfront week.

So like during the big week in May when all the advertisers gather CBS is said, they’ve canceled their live presentation for the first time in history.

Netflix is going to have a presentation for the first time in history like this is I think that’s a pretty, you know, seismic change in the industry of Paramount, outer CBS out and Netflix and their advertising every Advertiser on planet Earth wants to be part of Netflix right now, they just don’t have enough inventory.

35:35

There, not enough users of Netflix had supported, but I think the the content is surging.

The advertising offering is bringing down the price at a time.

When the economy is more difficult, and they’re cracking down on a lot of people who have been using it, not paying it.

35:52

It just, it feels like this is going to be a very big year for Netflix and I think you’re going to start to get that sense.

The course of the next month, as a really interesting one, and it goes to show.

I think just how how strange the last three years have been that you look at all these companies like Netflix, it absolutely took off during the pandemic and then just thoroughly crash between November of twenty one and the end of 2020 to.

36:17

But you know, I they’re not going to give up all those gains forever.

I mean, this is a company that has just such an extraordinary penetration in the US, continues to grow overseas.

I’m very interested to see what they do with advertising and how their advertising tier takes off.

36:33

That’s a pretty fast handing pick Rich Greenfield, thank you for playing along true or false fill-in-the-blank.

I really appreciate it, this is fun Derek.

Thanks is always a love it and anyone can certainly follow us on on social it’s just Rich light shed and we love more followers and more.

36:49

We love feedback so let us know what you think.

Fantastic.

Thanks rich.

Thank you for listening.

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37:07

That’s it.

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